Nick Chubb, the star running back for the Cleveland Browns, suffered a devastating knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This injury, which ended his season prematurely, left fantasy football managers scrambling to assess the implications for their teams in 2023 and beyond. Understanding the details of Chubb’s injury, his recovery timeline, and his potential fantasy prospects for the 2024-2025 season is crucial for making informed decisions for the 2024 NFL season.
The Injury:
Nick Chubb’s 2023 injury looked far more devastating than it actually was. Despite the optics it was a clean tear of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his left knee. This injury required immediate surgery to repair the torn ligament, followed by a second surgery aimed at cleaning up scar tissue from a previous knee injury sustained during his college career at Georgia. Chubb’s history with knee injuries dates back to 2015 when he tore the PCL, MCL, and LCL in the same knee, though his ACL remained intact at that time per NFL.com.
ACL tears are a common yet severe injury, often requiring extensive rehabilitation. Studies have shown that athletes can return to their pre-injury performance levels, but the timeline can vary. For instance, research published in the “American Journal of Sports Medicine” indicates that approximately 63% of NFL players return to play at their previous level within two years following ACL reconstruction. Notable players like Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski have successfully returned from ACL injuries to perform at elite levels, providing a beacon of hope for Chubb’s recovery.
The Recovery:
Recovery from an ACL tear typically involves a multi-phase rehabilitation process. Initially, this includes reducing swelling and regaining a range of motion, followed by strengthening the muscles around the knee and progressively increasing activity levels. Full recovery and a return to competitive play can take anywhere from 9 to 12 months, depending on various factors including the athlete’s overall health, adherence to rehabilitation protocols, and absence of complications.
For Nick Chubb, the expected timeline suggests he could be ready to return to the field by the start of the 2024 season. Historical data supports this optimistic outlook. Players like Cooper Kupp and Dalvin Cook have returned from ACL injuries to deliver high-caliber performances within a year of their surgeries. However, each recovery is unique, and while the prognosis for Chubb is positive, there remains a level of uncertainty until he begins participating in training camps and preseason activities. On May 20 Browns insider Mary Kay Cabot of cleveland.com reported that
“Chubb won’t be participating in OTAs or the minicamp from a team drills standpoint, but he’s been around all offseason rehabbing the knee and providing inspiration to his teammates. He also spends some time during the offseason training at his high school, Cedartown in Georgia, and could be back and forth during OTAs. But he’s been running for several weeks, and looks good. If all goes as planned, he’ll test the twice-reconstructed left knee during training camp, and work toward a return to the field as soon as possible.”
It sounds like a possibility that Nick Chubb will be ready to go by week 1.
Fantasy Outlook:
Assuming Nick Chubb completes his rehabilitation successfully, he should be again considered the Browns RB1. Before his injury, Chubb was a top three running back in fantasy football, known for his power, vision, and ability to break tackles.
As of June 30, 2024 we have Nick Chubb as RB17. I did project him for 15 games and a slight down tick in efficiency while he bounces back to form. For those of you that follow our running back workload scores, he has a career number of 1330 making him one high volume season away from the danger zone. If you’re not familiar with the workload scores you can learn about them here.
From an ADP perspective Chubb is going between 119-145 depending on format. Which bakes in the markets expected down tick in production. This feels like an over correction and misplaced fears over his injury. He’s an absolute steal and should be used as an RB2 or even a flex at that ADP.
If you’re in a dynasty league and not competing for a title, Chubb can be hard to move unless you really want a Courtland Sutton level player in return. The move with him is patience. His first two games are against the Cowboys and Browns, neither team looks like a dominant defense in 2024 and could create an opportunity to drive up Nick Chubb’s value for a trade. If your team is competing for a title then it is best to hold. His matchups down the stretch include Denver, Cincinnati, Miami, Kansas City and Baltimore. Any of those matchups should be considered positive matchups for Chubb leading to strong output during your title run.
In summary, while Nick Chubb’s 2023 knee injury was a significant setback, the historical success of athletes returning from similar injuries offers hope. His recovery process will be closely watched, and his performance in the 2024 season could make him a key player in fantasy football, provided he regains his prior level of play.