Building fantasy projections is a tricky business. At its core, you’re trying to predict what will happen based on what has happened and football is anything but predictable.
My process probably isn’t all that different from other serious analysts, but I want to walk you through it so you can understand the “why” behind the numbers I publish. This is less about overwhelming you with formulas and more about giving you transparency into how I approach team and player projections.
Step 1: Start With the Coaches
It all begins with coaching. Understanding a team’s play-caller gives us insight into how the offense is structured, how plays are split between run and pass, and how touches are distributed across skill positions. Some coaches run more plays per game, some lean more pass-heavy, and others are conservative grinders. That baseline helps us estimate things like total pass attempts and rushes basically, the size of the pie.
Step 2: Adjust for Game Script
Play calling doesn’t happen in a vacuum. A team’s win total, roster strength, and historical tendencies in neutral/positive/negative scripts all affect how run/pass ratios shake out. A rebuilding team projected to trail often will likely pass more than their coach would ideally like to.
Step 3: Break Down Usage by Position
Once we have total plays and general run/pass splits, I start distributing volume: how many targets go to WR1, WR2, the slot guy, tight ends, and backs? Same with carries, are we looking at a true bellcow, a thunder-and-lightning split, or a full-blown committee? Usage patterns are tied closely to coaching history and depth chart makeup.
Step 4: Red Zone & Scoring Opportunity
Touchdowns are noisy and hard to project year-over-year, but there are ways to make educated guesses. I pay close attention to how players are used inside the 20 and at the goal line. A player with strong red zone usage has a better chance at punching in TDs even if he’s not racking up yards between the 20s.
Step 5: Layer in the Roster
Now that I have team-level expectations, I zoom in on the players. I look at career averages, trends from the past few seasons, and where each player is in their career arc. Veterans with long resumes (think Aaron Rodgers) won’t be evaluated the same as a breakout second-year player. I also account for regression with aging curves, scramblers tend to fade earlier, while cerebral pocket guys can extend their careers.
Step 6: Apply Modifiers for Career Arc
If a player is entering a decline phase or coming off major injury, I’ll apply a downward modifier to temper expectations. Think of this like a projection “handicap” the model may say 4,000 yards, but if the red flags are stacking up, that gets scaled back to something more realistic.
Step 7: Reconcile the Math
This step is all about balance. Total team touchdowns need to match individual player totals. Target shares need to add up to realistic totals. If a team’s quarterbacks are throwing 45 TDs, but the pass catchers only account for 31, we’ve got a problem. This is the part where I clean up the rough edges.
Step 8: Filter Out Non-Fantasy Plays
Not every pass attempt should be treated equally. Throwaways, spikes, etc. do not produce fantasy value. I strip about 8% of pass attempts out as “non-fantasy relevant” to keep target shares and efficiency metrics realistic.
Step 9: Final Depth Chart & Sanity Check
Once everything is in place, I give it a final pass to make sure the depth chart makes sense, the games played match the stats, and no one is randomly projected for 800 yards on 20 targets. Any weirdness that slips through usually gets caught here or during summertime updates.
I know this doesn’t dive deep into every formula or assumption (we might save that for a YouTube breakdown), but I hope it gives you a sense of the layered approach I take with my projections.
Have more questions? Hit me up anytime:
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On X: @NFL_DMatteo
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Reddit: u/GridironRatings
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Or email: gridironratings@gmail.com
Always happy to chat football.