Aaron Rodgers: Injury, Recovery, and Fantasy Outlook

Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 season started and ended after just four snaps. The star quarterback suffered a torn Achilles tendon, ending his season before it had a chance to get going. This devastating injury often sidelines players for 9-12 months. While Rodgers is expected to make a full recovery for the 2024 season, questions loom about his recovery and the long-term impact on his career.

The Injury

Achilles tears are notorious for altering a player’s performance, particularly their mobility. Players often experience decreased explosiveness and agility. For quarterbacks, this means difficulty escaping pressure or scrambling for yards. A decline in arm strength has also been observed in some cases, impacting deep throws and accuracy.

This injury hasn’t been common for NFL quarterbacks, leaving Dan Marino in 1993 as the only real comparison. He tore his Achilles in Week 5 of that season, returned the next season (1994), but wasn’t the same player. His productivity took a sharp downturn starting in 1995 and beyond, missing 10 games in his final five seasons. His TD-to-INT ratio and yards per game metrics dropped sharply from his pre-injury numbers.

Aaron Rodgers’ injury is particularly concerning given his age (40 at the time of the injury). Older athletes generally face longer recovery times and may experience a more significant decline in performance compared to younger players. However, advancements in surgical techniques and rehabilitation protocols have improved the outlook for athletes recovering from Achilles tendon tears.

A 2017 study by doctors from Houston Methodist Orthopedics and Sports Medicine on NFL players who underwent Achilles tendon repair found that only about 72.4% of them returned to play in the NFL, with an average time to return of approximately 339.8 days. Aaron Rodgers will be on day 344 when Jets camp opens on August 10. Quarterbacks, as a position group, were identified as a position that sees the most complete recovery and were able to achieve performance levels closer to their pre-injury levels than all other positions, short of kickers/punters.

The Recovery

Aaron Rodgers has seemingly breezed through the bulk of his post-surgery rehabilitation with flying colors, but that doesn’t mean he’s out of the woods. During his recovery, there remains the risk of re-injury or related injuries. Although rare, re-rupture of the Achilles tendon is a serious concern. Additionally, other injuries can arise, such as calf strains, plantar fasciitis, and issues with the opposite Achilles tendon due to increased strain during recovery.

Muscle strains in the lower body, especially in the calf, hamstrings, and opposite leg, can occur due to compensatory movements for the injured Achilles. Tendinitis is another issue that can arise. Tendinitis is an inflammation in the tendon, and can also develop due to overuse during rehab. There is also an enhanced risk of foot and ankle issues, including plantar fasciitis and stress fractures. These issues can emerge from altered gait and biomechanics during the recovery process.

We can expect Rodgers to be ready for Week One. Many questions remain, the biggest being: Will he be limited? If so, how limited will he be? Can he make it through 2024 without missing time?

The number of risks is high and should be somewhat amplified due to his age. 

Fantasy Outlook

The 2024 season will be a crucial test for Aaron Rodgers. Questions remain about his ability to regain his pre-injury mobility and arm strength. Will he be able to adapt his playing style to compensate for any limitations? Rodgers has built his game around being able to move around to extend plays and use his incredible deep ball to complete improbable Hail Mary-type throws. The Achilles injury can impede those particular traits. My projections are accounting for that and some of the other risks this injury brings this season.

For 2024, Aaron Rodgers is my QB14. His injury, instability on the offensive line, the emergence of Breece Hall, and question marks amongst his pass catchers (after Garrett Wilson) are all reasons to be concerned for Rodgers’ outlook this season.

In dynasty formats, it’s hard to trust players who are over 40. At this time he’s worth more on your roster than he is in a trade. On keeptradecut.com, he’s currently QB29, which values him as a late 2025 2nd round pick in superflex or an early 2025 3rd round pick in single QB formats. Based on my early work on the 2025 class, I’d say he’s a hold on competitive teams as any return is likely not one worth the name value of Aaron Rodgers.

If you are drafting him this season, then adding another viable QB option will be crucial. View drafting Rodgers as a player who needs two roster spots—one for him and another for the insurance policy player you draft in case he goes down. While I have Rodgers at QB14, it’s going to be very difficult to take him as a starter on my teams regardless of format. Carrying him has great upside and can pay off the extra roster spot if he’s 100%. In the event you do not insulate yourself then a potential injury could leave you scrambling for QB production.

One thing is certain: Aaron Rodgers faces an uphill battle. But if anyone can defy the odds and return to elite form after such a devastating injury, it’s a four-time MVP with a proven track record of resilience and determination. The NFL world will be watching closely as Rodgers embarks on his journey to recovery and redemption.