Superflex Dynasty Rookie Mock 3.0
The NFL Draft is in the air, and the growing excitement is palpable. In just a few short weeks, the NFL offseason’s biggest event kicks off and we finally find out where our favorite prospects will begin their professional careers. For us dynasty footballers, of course, the NFL Draft sets us up for our very own rookie drafts where we arm our squads with the stars of tomorrow, and hope to avoid any Jalen Reagors along the way.
In this three-round, superflex, PPR dynasty rookie mock, the prospects have also been broken into tiers. The names within those tiers are more-or-less interchangeable based on personal preference and team need. Each tier will give an explanation for why the players there are grouped that way. Keep note that not all prospects will be discussed and certain ones will require a deeper explanation than others.
Key:
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Receivers
Tight Ends
The YouTube version with bonus commentary is in the sidebar. With that introduction and those guidelines outta the way, let’s get it.
Round 1
Tier 1:
1.01 – Breece Hall, RB1
Hall should be the unquestioned #1 overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts this offseason.
Tier 2:
1.02 – Garrett Wilson, WR1
1.03 – Jameson Williams, WR2
1.04 – Treylon Burks, WR3
1.05 – Kenneth Walker III, RB2
This group consists of players with monstrous upside, as well as a comfortably high floor. We all know about Wilson, Burks, and Walker. The names in this tier should not be surprising, aside from maybe Williams, who is being slept on worse than Jaylen Waddle was last year, thanks to an injury. His floor is safe and his upside is perhaps the highest of any receiver in this class.
Tier 3:
1.06 – Kenny Pickett, QB1
1.07 – Chris Olave, WR4
1.08 – Drake London, WR5
1.09 – Malik Willis, QB2
This next grouping is a gradient. It starts with the highest-floor, lowest-ceiling player and ends with the lowest-floor, highest-ceiling player. Draft strategy at this point in the first round changes based on roster need. If you need a stable, consistent QB2, consider Pickett. If you need a potential QB1 and are willing to deal with some bust risk, Willis is the way to go. The same goes for the receivers here. Olave has a safer floor than London, but London’s ceiling is higher.
Tier 3.5:
1.10 – Jahan Dotson, WR6
Too good to be in Tier 4, not quite on the level of those in Tier 3. While it is within Dotson’s range of outcomes to end up a team’s #1 receiver, his most likely role is a team’s #2 target – but a good one. His safe floor with some upside slots him in higher than the more boom-or-bust names within the next group.
Tier 4:
1.11 – Isaiah Spiller, RB3
1.12 – Matt Corral, QB3
A bit of a tumble for Spiller, who checked in at #6 overall in my last rookie mock (link at the end). His poor offseason showing has left many questioning whether he can handle a full workload as well as what his potential longevity is. With a roughly 4.6 forty time, “losing a step” means being relegated to backup permanently. Personally, I’m questioning whether Spiller is even a top 5 running back in this class, crazy as that seems. With “workhorse” being in his range of outcomes, he remains in the top 3 for now. The draft capital he receives at the end of this month will make or break his ranking for me much more than with other prospects.
After Spiller, you have prospects with immense potential at their positions but are raw in their own ways and need a number of things to break right for them to reach their full potential. Corral should get a couple years as a trial starter, which is valuable for superflex leagues. If he reaches his ceiling, a late 1st is an understatement of a steal. Continued in “Round 2.”
Round 2:
Tier 4, continued:
2.01 – Christian Watson, WR7
2.02 – George Pickens, WR8
2.03 – Skyy Moore, WR9
2.04 – Rachaad White, RB4
2.05 – Dameon Pierce, RB5
Even if they don’t develop into what they are fully capable of, Watson and Pickens at least pan out as solid deep threats. But the upside is much more. Moore is a player I have overlooked but is fully on my radar now as a guy I believe will develop into one of the league’s better slot receivers and has “PPR machine” upside. White has been another one of my biggest offseason risers as a running back who is good as a runner but also an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He might actually be what I thought Kenny Gainwell was last year. For reference, Gainwell was RB6 for me, post-NFL Draft.
Last but not least, Pierce is the main player I want to highlight from this group. I was reviewing an old article of mine recently, a preview of the 2021 college football matchups with the most fantasy football potential. Beneath the Florida vs. LSU blurb, I had highlighted Pierce, stating, “At running back, Dameon Pierce looks to repeat as Florida’s leading rusher. The senior is a bigger back who moves well given his size and has flashed as a pass-catcher. He’s a sleeper to keep an eye on for the 2022 draft cycle.”
…then I forgot about him because he was catching zero buzz during the regular season. That article is linked at the end.
Finding his name there made me go back and watch again, and, wow, he has been a big miss for me thus far this offseason, because I vastly underrated him… until now. Pierce is the last running back in this class I see having “workhorse” in his potential range of outcomes. The question is whether he can shoulder the load or not.
Tier 5:
2.06 – Desmond Ridder, QB4
2.07 – Sam Howell, QB5
The lower-tier “potential starter” quarterback prospects. Ridder and Howell should receive second round draft capital, and may even go late-1st if teams start trading up to get that fifth-year option. Both have lower upside in real football and in dynasty than the top 3, but still a chance to end up as starters.
Tier 5.5:
2.08 – John Metchie III, WR10
2.09 – Trey McBride, TE1
2.10 – David Bell, WR11
Sort of “no man’s land” here. Not that the prospects are bad, just the possible return is not as high as that of a potential starting QB. On the other hand, I feel more stable in what these prospects are than the ones in full-on Tier 6. Metchie and Bell have #2 receiver upside and McBride is an athletic tight end who can develop into a really good starter. As with most tight ends, selecting McBride means playing the long game.
Tier 6:
2.11 – Brian Robinson Jr., RB6
2.12 – Jerome Ford, RB7
For me, these prospects are difficult to separate because their fantasy potential is so close. Everyone knows this is a deep receivers class, but the main theme to point out here is the depth of the running back class this year. What it lacks in top-end talent, it makes up for with guys who can plug right in as solid rotational backs and be effective. Any of these runners has potential for fantasy relevance under the right conditions. Continued in “Round 3.”
Round 3:
Tier 6, continued:
3.01 – Pierre Strong Jr., RB8
3.02 – Tyler Allgeier, RB9
3.03 – James Cook, RB10
3.04 – Wan’Dale Robinson, WR12
3.05 – Jalen Tolbert, WR13
3.06 – Khalil Shakir, WR14
3.07 – Alec Pierce, WR15
A D-1 FCS star, Strong Jr. is a player I will be targeting heavily in the early-3rd, perhaps late-2nd pending landing spot. I believe he will be selected somewhere in the round 3-5 range later this month. He’s explosive as an athlete and his skill set looks like it translates nicely to the pro level. Allgeier and Cook provide different skill sets but have similar ceilings for fantasy football. Closing out the tier is a run on receivers. Robinson is an undersized but explosive deep threat. Tolbert is a small school star with good height who was wildly productive at the college level. Shakir is a recent riser for me as a productive college receiver built like Christian Kirk with a forty time in the 4.4s. Finally, Pierce looks like a guy who has upside to catch on as a solid vertical threat with his great size and speed.
Tier 7:
3.08 – Zamir White, RB11
3.09 – Jelani Woods, TE2
3.10 – Tyler Badie, RB12
3.11 – Sincere McCormick, RB13
3.12 – Kyren Williams, RB14
The rest of Tier 7: Carson Strong, QB6; Ty Chandler, RB15; Kevin Harris, RB16; Jeremy Ruckert, TE3
Rounding out this mock, we have a group of mostly running backs. White has the most likely upside of the group, followed by Woods who is an elite athlete but will require time to develop. Badie and McCormick are undersized runners but each have some very good traits and can carve out a nice role of maybe 8-10 carries per game in the right situation. Badie gets the edge as the better receiver out of the backfield. Once a projected first-round dynasty rookie pick, Williams is essentially off my draft board now. Living off previous hype, he will be long gone by this point in the draft. Slow and small are not a good combination, and his best case scenario is becoming a Walmart brand James White.
And that’s it! If you’re still here, thanks for reading!
Keep an eye out for more content in the near future, including my final dynasty rookie mock after the NFL Draft. The big event begins at 8 PM (EST) on April 28.
Signing off now, catch you in the next one!
If I missed anyone in this mock, let me know! You can find me on Twitter @thedevydirtbag.
CLICK HERE for my personal Dynasty, Rookie, and Devy Rankings
Interested in YouTube content? Here’s my channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI5EW3KRFxuGRP5w4aCM69g/videos
The referenced links, as promised:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzHPvwAoe10
https://rideordynasty.com/2021/08/13/devy-debrief-2021-cfb-matchups-with-the-most-fantasy-potential/
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