NFL DFS Main Slate Breakdown Week 13

Tags: DFS, Premium, Vanek Premium, Wide Receiver, WR Breakdown

Welcome to this week’s DFS breakdown, where we dive deep into the tipping points of the slate, the best stacks, mini-stacks, and individual plays to help you build a winning lineup. The beauty of this week’s slate is the wide range of options, especially at quarterback and running back, where some high-upside players are simply mispriced. We’ll break down the main stacks that could lead to explosive results, look at some game-specific mini-stacks that could be the key to unlocking hidden value, and cover position-by-position recommendations to round out your lineup. Whether you’re all-in on a high-octane game stack or looking for those under-the-radar plays that everyone else is missing, I’ve got you covered with the analysis and insight to help you crush your GPPs.

Tipping Points

RB Alvin Kamara NO

It’s simple, he fails if he doesn’t get the touchdowns and it’s Taysom Hill. Both of these guys should find running room against the Rams.

Main Stacks

I will put these in order of preference for the weekend. I have a few QBs in the pool that I like quite a bit.

QB CJ Stroud + WR Nico Collins + WR Tank Dell + WR Brian Thomas Jr.

This has to be the game where Stroud figures it out against an awful Jaguars defense. The Jaguars play a lot of man coverage, and recently, it’s been Collins and Dell who thrive in those matchups.

The Jaguars are getting Trevor Lawrence back, albeit at less than 100%, but I’m buying into his play for Brian Thomas. The Texans have struggled against deep balls all season, and I expect Thomas to capitalize with a big play in this game.

QB Justin Herbert + WR Ladd McConkey + TE Will Dissly + RB Bijan Robinson

This is a chalky way to play the game but it’s also the best way. McConkey and Dissly have been awesome this season and the Falcons defense will give you a ton of time to throw the ball which will lead to McConkey getting open

QB Bryce Young + WR Xavier Legette + WR Adam Thielen + RB Bucky Irving

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are awful against the pass and Bryce Young is playing exceptional football. He’s also used his legs over the past few weeks which gives him the added boost he needs to be a viable DFS QB. Legette and Thielen are the two options that I believe operate as 1A and 1B as we end the season. A lot of people are also playing David Moore which I think is a mistake.

Bucky Irving looked to be the alpha last weekend and overall it’s clear hes the best RB. He’s also giving you a lot of touches as a pass catcher which is what you are looking for in DFS.

Mini Stacks

Rams @ Saints

WR Puka Nacua or WR Cooper Kupp TE Taysom Hill And/Or RB Alvin Kamara

The Saints defensive backs are not very good and both Nacua/Kupp can put up numbers here but it comes down to touchdowns for who pays off the salary. My lean is Nacua over Kupp but it’s based on what he did last year to this team and not a lean backed with a data point.

The runback is simple, the run game of the Saints and I think it’s plausible to pay both here at the salary. Lock in all of the rushing work for the Saints and also give yourself the ability for Hill to throw a TD to Kamara.

Steelers @ Bengals

WR George Pickens RB Chase Brown

The Bengals can’t defend anything. It could be the run game for the Steelers, but I lean towards Pickens in the passing game because Vegas actually has the Steelers as the underdogs here.

Brown is a workhorse RB now and the Steelers have had problems defending the run throughout this season. Brown has also been really explosive and getting plenty of work as a pass catcher.

Top Plays

These are top plays that I have not mentioned yet.

RB Brian Robinson Jr.

No Austin Ekeler and they are big favorites at home.

RB Kenneth Walker III

The Jets are an awful team and it’s only going to get worse before it gets better. Walker or the passing game will be in for a big game here and my lean is the run.

WR AJ Brown

The Ravens are the worst secondary in football. Brown is one of the best WRs in football. Both teams will be focused on the run game and who throws the ball the best early on in the game.

WR Adonai Mitchell

This does not feel good tagging, but this is a big week for Mitchell. Mitchell on film has been phenomenal, but the play time has not been there and with Downs out it should be.

TE Hunter Henry

Henry has been a safety blanket for Maye and a good one. While I do love Taysom Hill, Henry makes for a great pivot with the matchup against the Colts. I also like Demario Douglas again, but think calling two Patriot pass catchers top plays would be a mistake.

Full Player Pool

I am changing this section up a bit and uploading the full pool below. You can search by team, player, opponent and if they aren't appearing they are not in my pool. Next week we will finally have the advanced data we need to make some more advanced plays on the slate.