NFL Coverage Insights Week 2

Tags: Defense, NFL, NFL Coverage, Vanek Premium, WR Breakdown

NFL Coverage Insights Week 2 The first week of the NFL season is always wild and full of surprises, catching fans, analysts, and content creators off guard. Take the Bengals-Patriots game, for example—almost no one saw the Bengals losing that one. After a strong season last year, the Bengals were expected to handle the Patriots pretty easily. But as the week went on, things started looking a bit shaky. Tee Higgins was ruled out with an injury, Ja'Marr Chase wasn't practicing much due to his contract situation, and suddenly, the idea of Joe Burrow leading the offense against a well-coached Patriots defense—one that had all the hallmarks of a classic Belichick game plan—didn't seem so simple anymore. By Week 8 nobody will remember that loss for the Bengals, and the week to week change is so important to figure out. Below, I will showcase what I think changed and why I believe something is going to

Each week, I'll provide insights on how I expect each team to play from a coverage perspective. If you have any questions or want to discuss further, click here to join the Discord where you can ask them directly.

I've developed a baseline projection for where I think each team will end up for the season, based on extensive research I conducted throughout the offseason. I will also highlight if I believe a specific quarterback (QB) on the slate is projected to see a coverage too high or too low based on the current matchup. For example, teams typically defend Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes much differently than they would a Bryce Young or Derek Carr.

Week 1 Takeaways The coverage data I use is all with Sports Info Solutions and if that changes I will be sure to let you know. But now let's get into the Week 1 takeaways.

Man Coverage Teams

In Week 1, we saw these play Man Coverage at very high rates.

I expected the Packers to be more aggressive, but trusting their DBs against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith proved costly. They'll be a great defense to target or stack against in DFS. The Jaguars’ decision to play man coverage against Miami was bold, effectively limiting Tua's quick passing game and forcing deep throws. However, losing their top defensive back to a hamstring injury is a significant blow. The Lions and Saints, coming from the same coaching tree, show similar heavy usage of man coverage, which isn't surprising.

Zone Coverage Teams

In Week 1, we saw these play Zone Coverage at very high rates.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Colts didn’t play a single snap in man coverage. Gus Bradley's defense is built around Cover 3, so we'll be looking to target zone beaters against the Colts moving forward. The Dolphins’ new scheme showed a mix of coverages but rarely used Cover 4 against the Jaguars, opting instead for an extra player in the box. The Titans' coverage approach was also interesting; while they showed some Cover 1 looks, they primarily stuck with Cover 4 against the Texans' strong passing attack.

Week 2 Early Thoughts

CeeDee Lamb

The Saints are among the NFL's heaviest users of man coverage, similar to how the Browns gave the Cowboys plenty of man looks. Lamb couldn’t fully capitalize on those opportunities, but I expect this duo to find their rhythm as the season progresses. This week could be huge for Lamb against a Saints defense that allowed Bryce Young open plays he couldn’t exploit.

Jared Goff

Goff dominated the Buccaneers last season, throwing for 640 yards and four touchdowns across two matchups. Jayden Daniels struggled with the deep ball, but Goff effectively showcased Jameson Williams' talent. Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn't a factor then, but now faces a favorable mismatch. I'm all in on the Lions' passing offense this weekend.

Malik Nabers

The Commanders' secondary struggled throughout the game, getting beat repeatedly, and their pass rush was ineffective. This should set the stage for Daniel Jones to have a solid performance, making Nabers a standout option by default.

Summary

It's only a one-week sample, and there's a long season ahead, but the key takeaway is that defenses are proving they can cover well, making the run game more critical this year. We’ve seen a notable drop in passing touchdowns, largely due to how coverages are being deployed. We’ll keep targeting mismatches and players primed for explosive weeks. Stay tuned for the main slate piece coming Saturday.