NFL Coverage Insights Week 1

Tags: Defense, NFL, NFL Coverage, Vanek Premium, WR Breakdown

How I Leverage WR Boom Weeks to Win in DFS Finding an edge in today's DFS world is no easy task. Personally, I’ve had success by focusing on projecting those big weeks for wide receivers (WRs) and using that insight to determine which quarterback (QB) is likely to perform best. This approach not only guides my DFS lineup choices but also helps me identify opportunities to ladder player props and gain an advantage over the sportsbooks by predicting a "boom" week for a standout player.

For example, sometimes this strategy leads me to make bold calls, like recommending Desmond Ridder and Drake London vs the Buccaneers in Week 14 of last season. That week, Ridder threw for 347 yards, and London racked up 172 receiving yards. It doesn’t always work out that perfectly, but when it does, it puts us in a prime position to make some money.

How this will Work Each week, I'll provide insights on how I expect each team to play from a coverage perspective. If you have any questions or want to discuss further, click here to join the Discord where you can ask them directly.

I've developed a baseline projection for where I think each team will end up for the season, based on extensive research I conducted throughout the offseason. I will also highlight if I believe a specific quarterback (QB) on the slate is projected to see a coverage too high or too low based on the current matchup. For example, teams typically defend Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes much differently than they would a Bryce Young or Derek Carr.

Coverage Breakdown The coverage data I use is all with Sports Info Solutions and if that changes I will be sure to let you know. But now lets get into the matchups I love/hate for Week 1.

The Loss of CB L'Jarius Sneed

One of the biggest offseason moves was the Chiefs trading away cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, and I think that loss will be felt in their game against the Ravens. I expect Trent McDuffie to shadow Zay Flowers, which could create a big opportunity for Rashod Bateman. According to Fantasy Points' data charting, Bateman was one of the league's top separators last season, making him a key matchup to watch for the Ravens on Thursday.

https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1830388688007627067

Eagles Passing Offense

Against Single High coverage, A.J. Brown has been Jalen Hurts' primary target. While DeVonta Smith is certainly capable of producing big plays, Brown is a mismatch in one-on-one situations and can be trusted to make plays even when tightly covered. Although Jaire Alexander is a top-tier cornerback, he doesn’t have the physical strength to consistently handle Brown.

I plan to target the Eagles' passing game in this matchup, as the Packers' new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, is likely to trust his corners to hold up and focus on stopping the Eagles' rushing attack led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. This approach will push the Eagles' new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, to get creative in the passing game with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

CeeDee Lamb

The Browns are likely to show a lot of Single High coverage, and if the quarterback gets enough protection, CeeDee Lamb is poised to put up big numbers. Lamb was paid to be a game-changer, and this is the kind of matchup he should consistently win. As the clear alpha in the wide receiver room, he is set to be heavily targeted at the start of the season. Last year, Lamb had one of the highest target shares against Single High coverage, with a 34% target-per-route-run rate.

CJ Stroud

Stroud was impressive as a rookie, and I expect that trend to continue in 2024. The Colts don't have the corners to play man in this matchup and will attempt to confuse Stroud with a lot of zone coverage looks. The problem is, Stroud showcased an elite level understanding of the game and they upgraded the offense.

For DFS, when Stroud has a big week as passer, it will involve two key pass catchers, which is why I’m targeting Nico Collins and Tank Dell for Week 1. Last season, Dell was targeted on a higher percentage of routes than Collins, but he wasn’t as efficient. While Diggs will likely have a significant role in the offense, I anticipate he’ll be used more in short-area situations, allowing Collins and Dell to dominate the deeper routes. Dell and Collins are the players with multiple games of experience with Stroud and that will be showcased in this one.

Diontae Johnson

The Saints are expected to play man coverage at a Top 3 rate in the NFL. D.J. Johnson was brought in to be the alpha receiver and primary separator for Bryce Young. I’m confident in his role and this matchup for him to succeed, and I expect him to see a significant target share in this game. Last year, Young often locked onto Adam Thielen in similar situations, but this year, I anticipate Johnson will be his go-to target.

Summary

This will be a weekly premium piece for users, providing in-depth insights and analysis. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out in the Discord channel linked at the top. My main slate piece and player pool will be released later this week, and you can find my weekly schedule below. As the season progresses and we gather more data, I’ll continue to adjust the numbers to reflect emerging trends and insights.