Dime Dropped

Converting from linebacker to defensive end in Lovie Smith’s 2021 4-3 base scheme. Second-year Edge Rusher Greenard took control of the line of scrimmage. And he did it impressively. Also doing it with just having the seventh-most snaps (36%) among the Houston DLs. Greenard managed 56 combined tackles, 12 QB hits, 9 tackles for loss, and 8 sacks. How outstanding is this? Well in the short term. It’s huge. And we have to look at this one like this. Even the above-par defensive linemen in the league could only dream of those numbers. And that’s if they played an entire 17-game season. So to grade out as the third highest DL last season was more than just luck. And that’s the benchmark that’s got everyone super excited.

2022

After breaking down the 2021 film and seeing exactly why he’s graded so high. It’s a no-brainer why 2022 is hot for Greenard managers. He’s got the DE technique down pat already and is very disruptive at the line of attack. His defensive “moves” are also already deep for a traditional linebacker that’s made the switch. As a matter of fact, it’s hard to even say there’s something he needs to work on. So other than playing at this level for a full season, what’s not to like?

Expectations

Assuming the best-skilled grade player on Hoston’s questionable defensive is who he appears to be. We should see his snap counts range closer to around 70% this coming season. And we would think that would open up doubling his IDP production output. But let’s be realistic here. He will be keyed on by opposing teams now if they are smart. This means more double teams and “avoiding” his side of the line more. So doubling all his numbers just seems outrageous. We’ve never seen a defensive lineman that was close to 100 combined tackles before. And the odds are so heavily weighed in we never will.

As for Greenards outlook. We’ll likely see more of an overall 20% percent increase in stats. That’s a reasonable assumption. And it likely won’t be weighted as heavy in combined tackles. That’s going to be really tough. Even the top three guys that play with a hand in the dirt as a defensive end cap of their ceiling in the 60 range. So where we’ll likely see that increase is in all those pass rusher stats we covet. And that’s where we’ll see Greenard continuing to make his mark. Ending 2022 sitting at the top of our DL draft boards heading into 2023.

Jonathan Greenard was one of our in-season deep dime drop targets last year. At least in private for our in-season GR members-only content last year. And if you missed the boat back then. You’ll certainly want to invest more to acquire him right now. He’s just now really hitting his prime and shouldn’t be left on any draft boards (ADP) as long as he is right now.