2020 Breakout: Robby Anderson
2020 Breakout Candidate: Robby Anderson
I’ve always had or wanted to have Robby Anderson on my teams and never understood why. Maybe I believe in his ability as a field stretcher or maybe I just like the name. Regardless, I’m a believer so let’s dive a little deeper to see if anything is there to be excited about.
First, let’s start with his stat lines from the last 3 years:
|Year||Target||Reception||Yards||TDs||Yards Per Rec||Catch Rate|
Say what you will about him but he has proven to be consistent with signs that he can contribute more.
Where is the Glass Ceiling?
He’s getting deep, getting targeted, and if the ball is catchable then he is making the play. That is the issue isn’t it, catchable targets. His catchable target % of 68.8 which is 94th in the NFL. This has limited him to an abysmal 54.2% catch rate, while we do not find a direct correlation between catch rate fantasy points we generally encourage people to invest in deep threat wide receivers who at least clear the 55.5% threshold for catch rate consistency.
In 2019 Anderson had 6 games of 7+ targets. In those contests, he had catch rates of 42.9, 62.5, 12.5, 70, 63.6, and 42.9. That’s a lot of volatility and certainly enough to give us pause in his current situation. Considering those numbers we need to remember that he only had thee drops. Catchable targets are again an issue. On the other end of the spectrum, in games where he caught at least 60% of his targets from Sam Darnold (5 games) Anderson averaged 17.94 FP/g in .5PPR leagues. A small sample size, but that pace would’ve placed him in the top 5 WRs on a ppg average. Let’s not forget he was 11th in aDoT of WR’s of 30+ targets (15.2), 11th in total deep targets (26) and only had 3 drops.
2020 and Beyond
Robby Anderson is a free agent and rumors have him landing with the Jets, Eagles, or Packers. Given those three spots seem to be the favorites we’ll break down Darnold, Wentz, and Rodgers on their ability to throw the ball deep (more than 20 yards). This will help us identify the best location for Anderson’s future fantasy prospects.
Darnold threw 11.6% of his passes deep which ranked 22nd in the NFL. Of those deep passes, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 33.3% for a passer rating of 75.9. 33.3% ranked 32nd and 75.9 ranked 24th (Stats provided by pff.com).
Wentz threw 12.2% of his passes deep which only ranked 20th in the NFL. The difference is Wentz had adjusted completion percentage eleven points higher than Darnold (44.6%) good for 14th in the NFL. Despite having a better completion percentage, Wentz only had a passer rating of 79.4 which ranked 22nd in the NFL. This can be attributed more to the Eagles WR’s not making plays after the catch or the fact the team had 29 drop passes in 2019. (Stats provided by pff.com).
Lastly, we have Aaron Rodgers and I was surprised by these stats. Rodgers ranked 3rd in the NFL with 16.3% of his passes going deep and had a passer rating of 111.2 which ranked 7th in the NFL. However, he seemed to have the reverse effect of Wentz. His pass attempts and passer rating were both top 7 in the NFL but his adjusted completion percentage of 37.6% ranked 27th (Stats provided by pff.com).
We can expect some progression for Darnold going into his 3rd year. It should be known that Wentz and Rodgers offer a much more immediate upside. He has proven over his career that he has the ability but has lacked consistency from his quarterbacks. Whether he leaves via free agency or Darnold being healthy an entire year I think we can expect Robby Anderson to have more fantasy consistency.