IDP Dime Drop: Safety Hard Fades
We’re continuing our IDP Dime Drop Hard Safety Fades with the defensive backs this time around. To recap, this is a personal list of the player I’ve been avoiding. and now suggesting that our members might do the same. These are based on scenarios just as much as anything. Avoiding them certainly isn’t going to be a major factor unless you are depending on them as starters. If this is the case owners may want to find a way to change the player out or just avoid it.
Any Rookies Are Safety Hard Fades In 2021
We recently covered the main rookie defensive backs in class on Getting Defensive. It was pretty well unanimous that the cornerbacks are not a hard play. While the safeties are actually not targets at all right now. Don’t forget, CBs are dime a dozen and can be streamed based on their matchups each week. Or the fact that free safeties seldom stand out as consistent IDP plays. If you’re into rookies make sure you check out the Getting Defensive live from our week two wrap up.
Don’t get me wrong about Phillips. He has served me well as an IDP breakout and waiver wire call over the years. The problem I’m having this year is he is returning to a pure safety position with Donte Hightower back. Not to mention second year safety Kyle Dugger penciled in to have a bigger role this year. Avoiding him isn’t because he’ll fall off the map. It’s because he isn’t going to get the same opportunities as he did at strong safety last year. On paper, he’ll likely take at least 25% in production if everyone stays healthy. As far as dynasty leagues, this season could very well be Phillip’s last rodeo. At least as a relevant play in fantasy football.
This one is more in the belief he is a replaceable talent and the safety role he’ll play in the scheme. Interchangeable or not, Derwin James is back. And after a lackluster 2021 campaign when the opportunity was there. He was more productive by default than anything. He didn’t exactly grade well and should spend a lot of his time deep on the field. With the state of the defense, poor grading, position. The odds are against him beating his production ceiling from 2020.
85% Of All FS Are Safety Hard Fades
This is a general group for this IDP guy. History has shown that the free safety position doesn’t produce consistently. Sure we have safeties like Budda Baker, Jordan Poyer, Justin Simmons, and Jessie Baits. Who are clearly the exception to the rule because of how they are used within the defensive scheme. Most deep free safeties just can’t be consistent enough. And if you lose a few weeks because they underachieved, you’re not making the playoffs. I’m looking at you Darnell Savage, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Eddie Jackson, and Kevin Byard. All these players play a more traditional free safety deep on the field. All are talented and had a nice upward margin in combined tackles in 2020. Moving them up on owner’s boards in the process. Don’t fall for it just yet. If things go the way they had prior to the first covid season, these guys are going to lose about 15% of their production. And even if a couple doesn’t this season. The odds are we won’t even notice because they’ll always still have a capped ceiling. Ceilings that targeting strong safeties can secure long term. Always keep in mind when looking at the players we mentioned. See if they padded the box scores with interceptions and such. Anything other than combined tackles. Other than tackles, everything else is hard to repeat a year in and year out. Consistency in the box score matters every week. Not by the end of the season.
Of course, we aren’t going to suggest you completely go deep. There will be plenty of players around these IDPs in rankings and ADP to select from. We do suggest you consider these players in a pinch or possible starter depending on the format. In no certain order. Justin Reid, Amani Hooker, Anthony Harris, and Rayshawn Jenkins all are better options. They are slated for bigger roles one way or another and will be consistent. That’ll be really important each week in our box scores constantly. Don’t be surprised if all of them hit near the triple digits in combined tackles in 2021. Remember IDP fans, we are being flooded with more and more serviceable defensive backs each year. So there will always be waiver wire IDP beat on the bone in most formats. Thanks again for joining me with this tip.
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