IDP Dime Drop
IDP Dime Drop (s) are intended first and foremost for The IDP Tipster.com members first. But will eventually be published or released to the general fantasy football community. Readers should note that our members have received this information to gain the IDP edge at least one waiver wire period before it is released. If you would like to be ahead of the IDP game before your league members please visit our home page and become a valued member . And see exactly what you are missing IDP Tactical Tools wise as well as these types of league winning tips.
IDP Dime Drop Players To Target ROS
Here we are entering week eight soon and it is time to start thinking ahead to the playoffs. Or should we say “A Run To And Then Through The Playoffs”. It is never too early to look ahead and make adjustments now if possible. Whether it is a sly trade made or potential waiver wire pick up. It’s never too early to try and pre-load the roster with appealing opportunity to win out.
It really doesn’t matter if it is a redraft or a dynasty fantasy football league. Making moves when possible in the later part of the fantasy football regular season can indeed prep us for that winning edge. Or as we all know increase our odds on any given run. After all there is nothing worse than realizing your at the door of the playoffs and your players have ran out of gas. Or that you are a lock for the playoffs but your IDP players have poor match-ups going forward. Depth is also an issue sometimes. And waiver wire pick ups or minor trades with future picks can right the ship and bring home the championship.
It is time to think ahead and in this article we are going to get that step going.
Our IDP Targeting Process
Everyone knows the basics. The most basic is to go and target high profile and known productive players. And we should believe in “We get what we pay for” to win. But the problem is that our league mates may not feel like moving those players or really want to charge you an arm and a leg. Hence, if they are “known” and already productive they are on someone’s roster. And worth a shot. Especially in a dynasty where draft picks can be used to tantalize the situation with whom your dealing with.
But Redrafts can be a lot harder to deal with owners. They can be thinking about their own run to the playoffs or simple be so in the hole that they will not even bother giving you the time of the day in trade talks. Redrafts are a far different beast at this point of a season.
So our targeting process first has to have players to look ahead on. And that is simply what we will do here. We’ll look deep ahead at players that according to the information we have now “should” be relevantly set up via match-ups from now and into the playoffs.
Pulling Off The Fade-In
So as we mentioned there is the obvious players to target that everyone knows can produce no matter the match-up. But we’ll take this one step farther using our process we apply in the Easy Start/Sit Charts. Hopefully that same process that helped get you in position to think you can make the playoffs. Or depth players if your a lock at this point. Either way, these following players could possibly be on waiver wires as bye week drops are made or on the tell end of someone’s roster. Which means they could be had at a lot cheaper price via a trade.
Please keep in mind, this isn’t necessarily a process based on a players talent. This process is purely based on opportunity and momentum. Something that is a lot more relevant in the defensive side off the game over the offensive. With that being said we will keep this all simple. Basic looking ahead versus the players current situation. And all based on what the trends currently are with what teams allow in points, snap counts, and “upside”. There won’t be any “fluff”, it will be straight to looking ahead and the match-ups.
There has already been a few IDP Dime Drops on players with there own “upside” going forward. Please feel free to recap those via the main menu. But the following won’t include them as we search for more.
IDP Targets For The Rest Of The Season
Consistency (Average) Matters!
Bye Week: Games left indicator.
Average Snap %: Average Snap Count Per Game When Available. With indicator of increase/Stable/Decline Recently.
Average Production = Average Combine Tackles Thus Far. And Play Making (.1 to .9) type plays. Like Pass defended, QB Hits, Tackles for loss, etc.
Average Match-Up %: Percentage Player has produced versus likely match-up via five step formula so far. Includes out-performing.
Forecast/Score: Weeks 8-16 Match-ups grades with five step formula via match-ups (opponents). Strong/Solid/Weak
Notices:
1. As stated in forecast these are set for leagues with the championship game happening in week 16, the standard.
2. Keep in mind you’ll have to return to use the Easy Start/Sit charts to manage what match-ups the following players should be used.
3. Picking up these players does not ensure the level of match-up they have at that time. These are overall scheduled match-ups for the rest of the season.
Defensive Lineman
Miami DT Davon Godchaux
Bye Week: 5
Average Snap %: 69% (stable)
Average Production: 4 combined tackles .1 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Strong (5 of 6)
Forecast: Solid – Score 19 of 27
Davon Godchaux has been about as consistent as they come so far this season. If not for one let down he was well on his way to being match-up proof. Reminder here that this is our basic DT, so our “strong” isn’t the same as a strong with upper tier type IDP players. He does bring a nice playoff schedule between weeks 13 to 16 with teams currently offering solid to strong match-ups to the defensive tackles.
San Francisco DT/DE Arik Armstead
Bye Week: 4
Average Snap %: 73% (stable)
Average Production: 4 combined tackles .5 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Strong (5 of 6)
Forecast: Solid – Score 18 of 27
Arik Armstead is overlooked as part of the 49ers defensive line unit overall. With Buckner and Bosa getting most of the IDP owner’s love. And with good reason for the higher ceilings. But Armstead has been very productive and has a consistent match-up schedule in front of him. While having the talent around him on the defensive line has actually helped his own IDP production as teams key-off on the stronger players. And his week 16 match-up is a divisional game versus the Rams who are currently very generous to points allowed to DLs.
Kansas City DE Alex Okafor
Bye Week: 12
Average Snap %: 68% (stable)
Average Production: 4 combined tackles .4 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Strong (5 of 6)
Forecast: Strong – Score 17 of 24
Alex Okafor does have a bye week coming up at a point that might be rough for some owners. Depending the leagues format. But he is well worth a stash with consistent match-ups and showing ability to live up to the billing. His week 16 match-up is just solid. But he’ll likely help get you to that point which is what we want off the top. It is versus the Bears in week 16. So just solid will likely hold some “upside” by the time of that contest.
Defensive Backs
Los Angeles SS/FS Taylor Rapp
Bye Week: 9
Average Snap %: 62% (increase)
Average Production: 5 combined tackles .3 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Strong (4 of 6)
Forecast: Strong 16 of 24
Taylor Rapp is on his way to being a hot pick-up as we include him. With John Johnson going on injured reserve last week his name is already all over the place. And this past contest versus the Falcons he did nothing but lock himself onto IDP owners radars. The question is just how much of an increase of snap counts he’ll receive going forward. But at this time indications are that they’ll increase enough to matter. Before John Jonson went down he was already making the most of what playing time he was getting. And although his next few contests on paper aren’t as shiny as we would like. He does finish out weeks 13 to 16 with strong match-ups on paper overall with the Seahawks, Cowboys, and 49ers. All currently generous to safeties.
Baltimore SS Chuck Clark
Bye Week: 8
Average Snap %: 45% (increase)
Average Production: 3 combined tackles .2 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Weak (2 of 7)
Forecast: Solid – Strong 18 of 24
Chuck Clark maybe the most under the radar playoff run DB out there heading into a bye-week in week 8. Don’t let the numbers above full you. He is now the starting strong safety for the Ravens with Tony Jefferson going down a couple weeks ago. We have already did a IDP Dime Drop on him because he was on the radar last week. Be sure to check it out because it shows just how strong this player is the rest of the season.
What is up with stock up Chuck Clark?
Jacksonville FS Jarrod Wilson
Bye Week: 10
Average Snap %: 100% (stable)
Average Production: 5 combined tackles .2 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Weak (4 of 7)
Forecast: Solid – Solid 19 of 27
Jarrod Wilson happens to be a player we did a IDP Dime Drop on early in the off-season. This was mainly to get him on the radar as a starter for 2019 and a guess at what he might have in store for us. It was a solid “take” on him so far so feel free to check it out in the link below.
IDP DIME Drop: Jarrod Wilson
As far as going forward we do need to mention that his free safety position can be “fluky” in consistency. But his role and scheduled match-ups still warrant having him on this list. This player will need to be monitored via our charts to maximizes our best odds. In weeks 13 thru 16 there are currently 2 weak and 2 strong match-ups as well. But the 2 strong are real strong. Including week 16 versus the Falcons.
Inside Linebacker
Cleveland WLB Mack Wilson
Bye Week: 7
Average Snap %: 95%
Average Production: 5 combined tackles .3 Play-making
Average Match-Up %: Weak (3 of 5)
Forecast: Solid – Strong (see below)
We are taking a little bit of a different approach with Mack Wilson and how we lay this out. At one point his name was the rage as a pick up after assuming a starting role when Christian Kirksey went down. And to note the numbers/data above is only from week 3 on. After taking over. So it was quite the surprise when looking in our standard sized leagues to see he was currently on the waiver wires. Because at his role via the match-ups he’ll have a much stronger second half of the season coming out of the bye week this past weekend.
We’ll simply lay this schedule out and pre-marked all the way thru what we can expect. Keep in mind this is at his level of play versus his role with the defense. But there are some match-ups with “upside” to low LB1 production. Which is kind of tough to do when your playing with some high caliber IDP players in terms of talent.
Always keep in mind that a divisional game (*) has it’s upside based on rivalry.
WK 8: VS Patriots Strong
WK 9: VS Broncos Strong
WK 10: VS Bills Strong
WK 11: VS Steelers Weak*
WK 12: VS Dolphins Strong
WK 13: VS Steelers Weak*
WK 14: VS Bengals Strong
WK 15: VS Cardinals Strong
WK 16: VS Ravens Strong
As we can see among the players on this list our first player to target in tackle based scoring formats should be Wilson. Based on his match-ups strength for the rest of the season he will be hot. And we could see him out-produce some of our other “known” LB1 from time to time.
Thanks for reading this IDP Dime Drop, we hope it helps win out and into the playoffs.
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