How-to Guides: Average Draft Position (ADP).
This should be the 4th and final component reviewed before drafting a player. When it comes to projecting performance, opportunity, and availability we get a pretty clear sense of how players stack up in your favorite rankings lists. ADP however, adds a distinct wrinkle that most others leave out. It allows us to see the value this player represents at his draft slot.
ADP can be volatile and depending on the source and can vary sometimes wildly. We take a consensus of some of the most popular ADP lists. (ESPN, MFL, Yahoo, Fantasy Football Calculator, and FFPC) We then apply an expected number of fantasy points scored for that draft slot. Due to the nature of QB scoring their projected points are a fraction of normal. This balances their later draft position and higher positional averages with other positions. This consensus and normalization provides a snapshot of where you can expect to draft a given player. It also gives you sense of what kind of investment a given player is at a given draft slot.
How it comes together.
Russell Wilson was projected as the 5th highest scoring QB at ~19 pts per game. His ADP was 49. His ADP Rating was 55, helping him land a preseason Overall Rating of 84.
Matt Ryan was projected as the 6th highest scoring QB also at ~19 pts per game. His ADP was 106. His ADP Rating was 81, helping him land a preseason Overall Rating of 99.
Many rankings lists had Wilson as the better option but failed to account for the fact that he had to be drafted over 50 picks sooner. This matters as you could have taken another position player (RB/WR) at 49 and really bolstered your depth instead of taking Wilson who was projected to be a lesser value. To be clear we were expecting similar production from these two but passing on overvalued players can be the difference between a championship and missing the playoffs.
This example was from 2018, Matt Ryan finished as the QB2 behind Pat Mahomes. Russell Wilson finished as the QB9.
Be sure to check out the other how-to guides to put together a complete picture of how the various ratings impact a players’ Overall and help you win fantasy championships. If you have deeper questions, comments or concerns feel free to chat, email, or reach out to us via social media.