Week 1 DFS Favorites
September 2, 2020 No Comments Article, DFS, Value Plays Kyle Carroll

Getting the Bag: a guide to take down the Milly

 

With the 2020 season approaching, fantasy drafts are in full swing and DFS isn’t very far behind. For those of you unfamiliar with DFS, it stands for Daily Fantasy Sports and is usually associated with 2 big names: FanDuel and DraftKings. The objective is to create a lineup within the given salary cap and hope for the best!

Like any form of gambling, there is a strategy to winning more often than not and with a little bit of luck you could take home the glory in DraftKings $5 Football Millionaire, with $1,000,000 to 1st!

The $5 Football Millionaire consists of 12 games on 9/13 during the 12:00 pm & 3:00 (CDT) playing times. I’ll be giving 2 “value plays” from each position as well as 1 “big spender” player that is worth spending your salary on.

Value Plays

Quarterback

Derek Carr $5,900 vs Carolina Panthers

Carr is by no means a sexy pick but he’s the perfect underrated QB. He plays a terrible defense, QB14 in price, and should give you a solid outing while allowing you to spend money in other places. Carr had 5 games of 20+ points in 2019 and has added new weapons in Ruggs, Edwards, and Bowden.

Tyrod Taylor $5,600 vs Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Carr, Taylor has the perfect balance of a great matchup, good price, and giving you a good baseline with his rushing ability. In 3 seasons as the Bill’s starting QB, Taylor averaged 36.6 rushing yards per game and adding 14 rushing TD’s in 43 games. In those 43 games, Tyrod had 13 games over 20+ points and had 31 games where he scored at least 15+. Tyrod offers the safe floor but still gives you the rushing opportunity for a blow-up game.

Runningback

Raheem Mostert $5,800 vs Arizona Cardinals

Priced as the RB15, Mostert is the lead RB on the best rushing offense in the NFL. While the Cardinals definitely improved their defense with the addition of Isaiah Simmons, De’Vondre Campbell, Devon Kennard, and Jordan Phillips, no one has appeared capable of stopping the 49ers rushing attack for 4 straight quarters. Also, they will be out to prove why they gave Mostert a new contract this past offseason.

Antonio Gibson $4,000 vs Philadelphia Eagles

Gibson is the new hotness with the release of Derrius Guice. While he will have competition for carries, Gibson proved in college that he can be explosive on limited touches, averaging 19 yards per reception and 11 yards per carry. The new regime in D.C. absolutely love Gibson and could put him in position to make big plays. The price is certainly worth the risk and allows you to throw extra money on your other RB slot.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson $4,900 vs Washington Football Team

This was my absolute favorite play even before all the injuries. Alshon Jeffery is expected to miss the start of the season and Jalen Reagor’s new camp injury leaves Jackson and Ertz as the undisputed top 2 targets. Jackson is still one of the fastest WR’s in the league and proved that last year when he blew up for 154 yards and 2 TD’s in week 1.

D.K. Metcalf $5,800 vs Atlanta Falcons

This is your boom play for week 1. Metcalf showed the combine pictures weren’t just for show. Multiple times last year he showed he was more versatile than his 3 cone suggested by torching the Eagles for 160 yards and a TD in the first round of the playoffs. The Falcons allowed the 11th most passing yards in 2019 and somehow managed to get worse on defense with a few departures. Lockett will probably lead the team in targets but Metcalf has the better chance of blowing up week 1.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst $4,300 vs Seattle Seahawks

Hurst may be one of the highest owned TE’s for week 1 behind Kittle and Ertz but it is probably warranted. His TE10 pricing is a huge value for a TE that is coming into 97 targets left by Hooper and has a favorable matchup against Seattle. Seattle was in the bottom 4 against TE’s in 2019.

Jack Doyle $3,600 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

This will be one to watch. Doyle had a neck injury that kept him out of practice for a couple of days but he did return. The team is being cautious and he’s expected to be ready in week 1. Doyle is the exact TE I would expect Rivers to love. He’s not super athletic but he gets open and will rack up opportunities near the line of scrimmage from check down Rivers. Hunter Henry had 6+ targets in 8 of his last 11 games with Rivers. Jacksonville’s defense is gutted and will probably be the worst in the league. There is an opportunity there for Doyle.

Big Spender

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson $8,100 vs Cleveland Browns

It’s Lamar Jackson and that shouldn’t be a surprise. Lamar was a cheat code last year and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be again. He’s very expensive ($1,100 over the 2nd QB) but he’s worth throwing into at least 2 of your lineups for the upside of winning you the position.

Runningback

Josh Jacobs $6,800 vs Carolina Panthers

While he’s not as expensive as CMC, he is the RB6 in terms of price. Much like Carr, he has a fantastic matchup. Jacobs was one of the best true runners in 2019 and if it wasn’t for a shoulder injury, and the coaching staff holding him back, he easily would’ve won rookie of the year. Jacobs is getting a ton of camp hype and coach speak about an increased receiving workload for 2020.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen $6,700 vs Green Bay Packers

While I don’t love the matchup against a stout Green Bay defense, Thielen will be thrust into a true WR1 workload with the departure of Stefon Diggs. While it is evident that Thielen works best out of the slot, he actually grades really well on the outside as well. The defense will, and should, be focused on Dalvin Cook and the running game so I expect a hyper-efficient Kirk Cousins to target Thielen often in a tough divisional matchup.

Tight End

George Kittle $7,200 vs Arizona Cardinals

Give credit to the Cardinals for identifying a weakness and doing everything they can to improve. Arizona was the worst team against the TE in 2019 and they added a ton of new talent, as mentioned above. But, it’s George Freaking Kittle. The highest-paid TE ever. The 49ers are hurting with the loss of Brandon Aiyuk and Debo Samuel as they are expected to possibly miss week 1. Regardless, there should be plenty of targets for a TE that’s going up against a new defense trying to find their identity.

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