Weather Impact Score

The maximum fantasy point swing a player exhibits across different weather conditions, measuring weather sensitivity.

Category: Tools · Status: Active

What it measures

Weather Impact Score identifies how much a player's fantasy production varies based on environmental conditions including temperature, wind speed, precipitation, playing surface, venue type, and home/away splits.

Inputs

• Game-level fantasy points: Per-game PPR scoring across 2023–2025 seasons.
• Weather conditions: Temperature, wind speed, and precipitation for each outdoor game.
• Venue and surface data: Dome vs. outdoor, turf vs. grass, retractable roof status.
• Home/away designation: Game location relative to the player's home stadium.

Scale

• Below 3.0: Weather-proof - consistent production regardless of conditions (green).
• 3.0 – 4.9: Moderate sensitivity - some weather-driven variance (orange).
• 5.0+: Heavily impacted - production swings dramatically with conditions (red).

How to use it

• Before weekly start/sit decisions, check Weather Impact for players facing adverse conditions.
• Target weather-proof players for playoff weeks when conditions are unpredictable.
• Pair with weekly projections for weather-adjusted fantasy point estimates.

Limitations

• Requires minimum 2 games per condition bucket, which limits granularity for newer players.
• Indoor players (dome teams) have limited weather data and may show artificially low scores.
• Does not account for altitude or humidity effects on performance.