QB Exposure Score

A composite metric that evaluates how a quarterback's fantasy production is distributed across his receiving weapons.

Category: Quarterback · Status: Active

What it measures

QB Exposure Score analyzes the relationship between a quarterback and his pass catchers by examining target distribution, receiver fantasy production, and air yard allocation. It reveals whether a QB is propped up by elite weapons or drives production independently. A high score means the QB's fantasy output is tightly coupled to one or more elite receivers; a low score means the QB manufactures production regardless of supporting cast.

Inputs

  • QB passing stats: Yards, touchdowns, attempts, completion percentage, and interceptions for the evaluation period.
  • Pass catcher target shares: Percentage of team targets distributed to each receiver, used to compute concentration via Herfindahl index.
  • Pass catcher fantasy totals: Individual PPR fantasy points for each pass catcher on the roster, used to rank receiver quality.
  • Air yards distribution: Intended air yards allocated to each receiver, distinguishing deep threats from underneath targets.
  • Team passing volume: Total team pass attempts and passing yards, used to normalize for scheme and pace.

Scale

  • 0 – 25: Independent producer - QB drives value regardless of weapons. Safest dynasty investment.
  • 26 – 50: Moderately independent - some weapon reliance but QB talent is the primary driver.
  • 51 – 75: Weapon-dependent - production meaningfully tied to one or more elite pass catchers.
  • 76 – 100: Highly dependent - QB's fantasy value is largely a product of his supporting cast.

How to use it

  • Compare QB Exposure Scores year-over-year. A QB who maintains fantasy output after losing a top weapon is independently elite.
  • In dynasty, prefer QBs with low Exposure Scores - their value is more insulated from roster turnover.
  • When evaluating a WR trade, check the QB's Exposure Score to assess how much the WR's production depends on QB quality vs. opportunity.
  • Use alongside Gridiron Overall Rating to distinguish genuinely elite QBs from system/weapon beneficiaries.

Limitations

  • The metric does not account for offensive line quality, which heavily impacts QB production through sack rate and time to throw.
  • Scheme changes (new OC, new playbook) can shift Exposure Scores between seasons without reflecting a change in QB talent.
  • Rookies and QBs with fewer than 8 starts in a season may have unreliable scores due to small sample sizes.
  • The Herfindahl index treats all targets equally regardless of depth of target, which may underweight certain distribution patterns.