Points Over Average at ADP (POAA)

Measures how many fantasy points a player scores above or below the average output of players drafted in the same ADP range.

Category: General · Status: Beta

What it measures

POAA evaluates draft efficiency by comparing a player's actual (or projected) fantasy point output to the average production of players selected in a similar draft slot. It answers a simple question: did you get more or less than what that pick was worth? Positive POAA means the player outperformed their draft cost; negative POAA means they underperformed relative to opportunity cost.

Inputs

  • Player fantasy points: Total or projected PPR fantasy points for the evaluation period (season or partial season).
  • ADP: Average Draft Position from consensus industry rankings at the start of the season.
  • ADP cohort average: Mean fantasy points scored by all players drafted within a ±6 pick window of the player's ADP.

Scale

  • +80 or higher: Massive value - league-winning pick relative to draft cost.
  • +30 to +79: Strong outperformance - solidly beat expectations for the draft slot.
  • -10 to +29: Met expectations - roughly returned the value expected at draft cost.
  • -30 to -11: Underperformed - noticeable miss relative to draft capital spent.
  • Below -30: Bust territory - significant loss of draft capital.

How to use it

  • After a season, review POAA to evaluate your draft decisions and identify patterns in your drafting tendencies.
  • Use projected POAA during draft prep to find players the model expects to outperform their ADP.
  • Compare POAA across positions to identify which position groups offer the best value at various draft rounds.
  • POAA is most useful for redraft evaluation - in dynasty, long-term asset value matters more than single-season output.

Limitations

  • POAA is sensitive to the ADP source - different platforms produce different consensus ADP values.
  • The ±6 pick cohort window is somewhat arbitrary; edge cases near round turns can distort comparisons.
  • Injuries distort retrospective POAA - a player who gets hurt in Week 2 will have terrible POAA regardless of talent.
  • POAA does not account for positional scarcity; a WR1 pick and a TE1 pick at the same ADP are treated equally.