The Seahawks Jamal Adams IDP Forecast Collaboration
August 1, 2020 No Comments Article Gary Van Dyke

Welcome to The Seahawks Jamal Adams IDP Forecast Collaboration, addressing his situation after a blockbuster trade was made between the Jets and Seahawks. Some IDP owners have mixed emotions about just how this affects his value going forward. So we’ve gathered a few knowledgable fantasy football writers to address the topic and get the facts straight. We hope you enjoy this collaboration and benefit from the information these writers provide as they did all the heavy lifting in their “takes’ on the situation.

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Jamal Adams IDP Forecast As A SeaHawk

Last season Seattle played the highest percentages of plays in base 4-3 at 68.8% which was almost 42% higher than the average NFL team at 27%. McDougald was their SS and recorded 70 total tackles in 15 games. The telling number is that he only recorded 2 QB hits and half a sack. One of the reasons Adams is worth so much in IDP leagues was his high number of big plays. Adams had a similar tackle total, 75 in 14 games, but he had 6.5 sacks and 13 QB hits. He also had 10 tackles for loss compared to just one for McDougald. McDougald blitzed 21 times in 2019. Adams was brought in on the blitz 90, yes 90 times.

These are two vastly different players with different strengths. McDougald allowed a 58.8 passing rating on balls thrown his way while Adams was 75.2. They both allowed similar completion percentages and McDougald’s ADOT was about double that of Adams’ at 11.7 yards. Seattle’s scheme in 2019 limited McDougald’s big-play opportunities as he did well in coverage where Adams thrives in the blitzing/tackle role. If the Seahawks don’t change their scheme to fit their personnel, expect Adams to be less productive than he has been in the past. Many factors point to a potential decline in Adams’ IDP production with the move to Seattle.

– Andy Spiteri, contributing author for FantasyAlarm.com and Razzball.com, and can be found on Twitter @gasdoc_spit 

Last year Seattle ranked 4th overall in rushing and 8th in total offense while the Jets were ranked 31st in rushing and dead last in overall offense. While part of that was the absence of Sam Darnold (QB), you would likely still be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks the Jets offense will be taking any giant leaps forward this season. While the Seahawks will be getting both of their starting running backs returning from injury and added Greg Olsen (TE) and will also benefit from the continued development of star in the making wide receiver DK Metcalf. What does this mean? Well if these factors cancel out (Jets getting Darnold back but Seattle getting their starting running backs healthy) and these respective offenses rank similarly this season, then Jamal Adams loses roughly two minutes of defensive snaps per game by leaving New York and heading to Seattle.

Throughout a 16 game season that’s about an entire games worth of defensive snaps, Adams will be losing this season. Because IDP producers put up better numbers on teams with bad offenses generally so this factor cannot be ignored. And this is clearly a negative move for his production at the minimum and is most definitely not an upgrade to his situation. When you factor in the other arguments, the picture becomes even clearer that Adams will have his worse production this season by moving to Seattle.

While my argument in regards to the differing time of possession between these two teams will ultimately only mean a slight difference in total defensive snaps (about a games worth) when you factor this in with the other arguments made here it paints a picture of Adams likely losing some production this season and if we’re very lucky maintaining his numbers from last season. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a safety one but not THE safety one.

– Johny The Greek, senior author and podcast host for IDPGuys.org, and can be found on Twitter @OrangeMan3142

Jamal Adams has never played a full season with a high-quality tandem of inside linebackers like Seattle offers. Over Adams’s three seasons as a Jet, he has played alongside a lot of lackluster talent overall, not including C.J. Mosley in 2019, who only played 114 snaps total. And only 46 of those snaps were quality playing time before he went down with a core groin injury the first week of the season. So in 2019, he played with depth players like James Burgess (PFF Grade: 54.9 ), Neville Hewett (40.3), and rookie Blake Cashman (49.1). And in the process, Adams averages 5.5 combined tackles, and 3 playmaking type plays per contest, like passes defended, a tackle for loss, and sacks.

In 2018 there was Avery Williamson (74.3), and Darren Lee (72.4) playing inside linebacker, and Lee happened to record his best grade ever after two sub-50’s seasons. This particular year in 16 games, Adams went triple digits in combined tackles (115), averaging 7 and 2.5 playmaking type plays per contest. Then in 2017, we have Darren Lee again (sub-50) and Demario Davis (87.3). Adding that Davis had a breakout season after recording a 47.3 the year before with the Browns. Granted, Adams was a rookie this year, but playing alongside just one highly graded player with Davis he had his least productive season. Averaging 5 tackles but just 1.5 playmaking type plays per game. As for Davis that year, he recorded his best season to date with 135 combined tackles and averaged 2.5 playmaking (37 that year) type plays a contest.

So comparably, Seattle’s Bobby Wagner is arguable one of the best in the game right now and has a four-year overall PFF grade of 86.4. That includes hitting the Elite Level (90.0+) in 2017 and 2018 while averaging 149 combined tackles a season. And then there is K.J. Wright, who could be the best linebacker on many other NFL rosters. Since 2016 he has averaged an overall grade of 77.1 and has also recorded triple-digit tackles each season. Of course minus 2018 when he only played five contests because he had knee surgery. And let’s not forget that a lot of this time Wright and Wagner was playing with pro-bowl caliber safeties, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.

– Gary VanDyke, senior analyst and author here at Gridiron Ratings, and can be found on Twitter @TheIDPTipster
Jamal Adams already headed toward 2020 with a volatile fantasy-scoring profile. He finished last season just 22nd among DBs in tackles per game. Adams fared much better, at 6th, in that category in 2018. But moving to Seattle complicates his tackle outlook. Beyond playing behind a much better crew of LBs, Adams goes to a place that awards fewer solos and more assists. Last year, for example, found just 61.0% of Seattle’s total tackles awarded as solos vs. 68.5% for Jets tacklers.

The Seahawks’ percentages were higher each of the previous 2 years — matching Adams’ 3 NFL seasons so far — but the Jets have still beaten them in that category each of the past 3 seasons.

The even bigger knock on Adams’ 2020 outlook, though, comes from a sack total that is definitely coming down. His 6.5 sacks accounted for anywhere from 15% to 26% of his 2019 scoring — depending on your format. According to Pro Football Focus, Adams garnered 101 such chances in 2019, 2nd most among all safeties. Malcolm Jenkins ranked 3rd at just 74. ALL Seattle safeties, meanwhile, combined for only 31 pass rushes in 2019.

I already had Adams below consensus in my initial rankings. The move and attached uncertainty only pushes him down further.
 
– Matt Schauf, author and podcast host at DraftSharks.com, and can be found on Twitter @SchaufDS

The Jamal Adams trade has caused ripples in the fantasy community, unlike any trade we’ve seen in the last several years. In the fantasy realm, this trade has several levels. The Jets were not worth the investment so nothing changes for them but the Seahawks can now cover the TE which is really going to change the complexion of this team. With matchups against the George Kittle and Tyler Higbee (twice each), Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, Kyle Rudolph, and Mike Gesicki the ability to manage the middle of the field WILL result in more turnovers for the defense and more chances for the Seahawks offense to grind games out.   

What does that mean for Adams Value? The Jets system and deployment of the SS aren’t that dissimilar from Seattle however there are a few points that seem to keep popping up. The Seahawks get fewer defensive snaps than the Jets. While this is true the difference in snaps (if all things are equal) would be about 65-75 defensive snaps on the season which based on Adams stand-alone production (over a 16 game season) is about 7 tackles, .3 Sacks, .25 INTs…Well, you get the picture. It’s actually a pretty marginal drop off.  

With all of the games that the Seahawks play vs TE dependant teams, Adams stands to make more plays in the passing game than we’ve seen in the past. While he’ll be creeping into the box he’ll be expected to stay downfield with the likes of Kittle, Higbee, etc. While we may see an approximately 10% dip in tackle production vs the run the upshot is that he’ll get those points back in the passing game through tackles, passes defended, INTs, etc. The bottom line here is that while this is an exciting move and gives us plenty to talk about the actual fantasy production for Jamal Adams projects to be about the same as it was pre-trade.

– Jeff DiMatteo,  founder of Gridiron Ratings and podcast host at TheFantasyTakeaway.com, and can be found on Twitter @NFL_DiMatteo

In the collaboration of these five knowledgeable fantasy football authors, we have a clearer picture as to why IDP owners should temper their expectations concerning the Seahawks Jamal Adams IDP production jumping up in Seattle. And we do understand that the situation may change in time with personal and staff. But as it sits, and no matter how talented Jamal Adams is, it’ll be tough going forward from an IDP perspective to think he can improve on his numbers overall. And just how far he’ll fall or rise in IDP rankings based on fantasy football production remains to be seen at this point. Or even how this may affect his future value in leagues because only the 2020 season can give us a sample of what’s in store for us. But if you ask these IDP writers their opinion, the Seahawks Jamal Adams isn’t likely to have the exact same opportunities the Jets Jamal Adams once did. Seahawks Jamal Adams. Seahawks Jamal Adams.

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