Welcome to the IDP free agency gauge, where we’ll use an assortment of available information to gauge a player’s potential fantasy football outlook. And signed or unsigned, we’ll accumulate what we’ve learned in the process to gauge how to proceed from an IDP point of view with each player. So sit back and enjoy as the NFL ramps up their free agency period, and we break down those scenarios along the way.
Designated IDP Positions: DL/DE/Edge Rusher
H/W: 6-2 – 250lb – Age: 24
2019 Team / Scheme: Jaguars / 4-3
Experience: 4 years
Status: Unrestricted Free Agency
2019 Gridiron Ratings
DE: Defensive End - ER: Edge Rusher
Note: PFR’s advanced metrics are only available from 2018 onward.
Additional IDP Free Agency Information According To…
2019 PFF NFL Edge Rusher Grade: – UFA Rank: #26 / Edge Rusher Rank: #36
2020 Spotrac Projected Calculated Market Value:
5 yrs, $85,916,245
Avg. Salary: $17,183,249
NFL Rank: 32
Four “rumored” landing spots, if not resigned.
Seahawks, Buccaneers, Bills, Giants
Gauging Yannick Ngakoue IDP Free Agency Scenario As A UFA
On paper, Ngakoue has shown a mixed package in fantasy football statistics overall. And this is making gauging his future for IDP purposes a little tough from this writer’s perspective. Because in his second year, his best IDP season statistically, he showed the potential to reach top tier defensive end and edge rusher status. Only then to regress some in 2018 and 2019, giving him the benefit of the doubt for the 2019 season. When he reportedly was hampered by a hamstring injury early on.
But there is no clear indication of what went south in 2018 when he first peaked in his percentage of snaps available. Not only was he just short in repeating double-digit sacks, but he regressed in game-changing type plays. Although he did increase his presence in the backfield by applying more pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. So, he has shown the capabilities but not yet put the total package on the field in any given season.
- He has always played second fiddle behind veteran blindside edge rusher Calais Campell, who has the advantage of that prime position.
- His career 37.5 sacks rank 10th in the four years he has been in the NFL.
- He is a below-average graded run defender, with is carer best of 60.0 recorded in 2018.
- He did improve to 18th overall in 2019 with a run-stop percentage of 7.6 among the edge rushers.
- Since entering the league in 2016, his 14 forced fumbles ranks fourth among the edge rushers.
- His best overall season was in 2017, graded at 81.0 overall and earning an 88.2 as a pass-rusher.
- He did regress after his 2017 season in pass-rusher grades with a 76.8 in 2018 and a 77.5 in 2019.
- The Jaguars have to decide if they’ll pay him as he wants. He has stated he would like to be one of the highest-paid at his position in the NFL.
- He did hold out last off-season for 11 days until he received more money.
- Calais Campbell at 33 years of age outplayed him and was graded by PFF at 90.1. And is still under contract for 2020 with a $15 million base salary.
- The Jaguars are 25th in available cap space with $22,865,754.
- Rumors are that Ngakoue made the statement he does not want to be franchise-tagged.
Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due
The Jaguars' Yannick Ngakoue wants to be the highest-paid player at his position https://t.co/3sVB6ComyC— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) February 24, 2020
Next Stop........— Yannick Ngakoue (@YannickNgakoue) February 26, 2020
All business and never personal.— Yannick Ngakoue (@YannickNgakoue) February 28, 2020
This Author’s IDP Game Film Reviewed
In the process of reviewing game film, at least four games are reviewed based on the player’s most productive contests. And the opponent’s offensive line rankings are added according to the Football Outsiders.
Panthers in week five, offensive line ranked 17th in run blocking and 28th in pass blocking.
Raiders in week fifteen, offensive line ranked 5th in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking.
Jets in week eight, offensive line ranked 31st in run blocking and 30th in pass blocking.
Colts in week eleven, offensive line ranked 12th and 7th in pass blocking.
Noting Players Three Least Productive Contests
Listed in the least productive order the player recorded the least amount of stats for gauging purposes. And their offensive line rankings are added according to the Football Outsiders. These contests are not among the game film reviewed unless noted as such.
Falcons in week eight recorded one pass defended with 88% of the available snap counts. The Falcons offensive line ranked 24th at run blocking and 13th in pass blocking.
Saints in week six recorded 1 solo, and 1 pass defended with 65% of the available snap counts. The Saints offensive line ranked 1st at run blocking and 3rd in pass blocking.
Broncos in week four recorded 1 solo, 1 assisted tackle and 1 pass defended with 82% of the available snap counts. The Broncos offensive line ranked 10th at run blocking and 25th in pass blocking.
IDP Free Agency Scenario Gauged
As A Resigned Jaguar In 2020 +
Taking everything into account, this writer believes that Ngakoue would be the Jags blindside edge rusher in time, if not in 2020. Simple, they have to put him in a prime position if they are willing to pay him as such. At the least, it should happen in 2021.
Fantasy Football owners should consider him as a dynasty (long term) ER1. He has shown bits and pieces at getting the IDP job done and when he is inserted as the main rusher should consistently have the opportunity to earn his cash. As a defensive end, because of the lack of run-stopping skills, likely more of an upper DE2. Simple to say that defensive ends need base tackles to go with sacks to be an upper-tier one. And he is struggling to hit those numbers there at this time to the point we can trust that he will.
Signed Elsewhere In 2020 +
Again taking everything into account, this writer believes that if Ngakoue signs elsewhere he’ll have slightly more ascending as an edge rusher. Our thinking here, if a team is willing to pay him like he expects to be, he’ll instantly be applied as such. And because of his size and skill set, it is highly unlikely a team using the 3-4 defensive scheme would consider him as a defensive end. And the odds are he’ll end up in the same 4-3 scheme the Jags use, which is proven to be more efficient for defensive ends and edge rushers overall. If signed to a 3-4, they’d likely insert him into an outside linebacker position, fitting his talents to get the pressure and opportunity for sacks.
Fantasy Football owners will want to consider him exactly as if he resigned with the Jags. Just potentially peaking sooner, and with a little more potential to hit the possible upside if the team he signs with has a better interior defensive line that the Jags have. And fingers crossed they wouldn’t pay him to have him in a rotation that hampered his opportunities.
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