Welcome to the IDP free agency gauge, where we’ll use an assortment of available information to gauge a player’s potential fantasy football outlook. And signed or unsigned, we’ll accumulate what we’ve learned in the process to gauge how to proceed from an IDP point of view with each player. So sit back and enjoy as the NFL ramps up their free agency period, and we break down those scenarios along the way.
Designated IDP Positions: OLB/Edge Rusher
H/W: 6-3 – 260lb – Age: 26
2019 Team / Scheme: Ravens / 3-4
Experiance: 4 years
Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
2019 Gridiron Ratings
OLB: Outside Linebacker - ER: Edge Rusher
Note: PFR’s advanced metrics are only available from 2018 onward.
Additional IDP Free Agency Information According To…
2019 PFF NFL Edge Rusher Grade: 69.2 – Rank: #44 / OLB Grade – Rank: NA
2020 Spotrac Projected Calculated Market Value:
4 yrs, $65,253,032
Avg. Salary: $16,313,258
NFL Rank: 37
Four “rumored” landing spots, if not resigned.
Jets, Falcons, Titans, Steelers
Gauging Matt Judon’s IDP Free Agency Scenario As A UFA
There wasn’t a team in the league that blitzed more than the Ravens in 2019, sending the pass rush 55% of the time. And in that period, Matt Judon played 81% of the snaps available on defense. That was the third-highest and only behind free safety Earl Thomas’s 91% and cornerback Marion Humphrey’s 98%. Additionally, Judon’s 81% was by far the leading snap percentage among the front-seven on the defense. Which are traditionally among the key players like defensive lineman and linebackers used in the pass rush. And the players in that front-seven behind Judon averaged earning approximately 49% of the snaps available. With the nose tackle Brandon Williams coming in second with nearly 54% of the snaps available on the year.
During all the blitzing the Ravens defense, Judon applied pressure 62 times while rushing the backfield. And reportedly of those attempts, he went unblocked well above the league average of fifteen with a total of 35 free shots. So at that rate, he went untouched or unblocked 56% in his attempts to apply the pressure. And although one resource credits Judon for the 18th best-rate at beating his blocks when challenged, another resource went on record saying his grade at beating blockers one-on-one was poor and ranked 51st overall. And also citied that the Raven’s secondary helped “fluffed” his numbers because they were great in coverage, producing three All-Pro defensive backs in 2019.
In a contract year, Judon recorded his best overall season as a Raven. But on paper, according to these resources, it is conflicting on just how well he performed in the process. He was ranked high in some areas like quarterback hits and sacks created statistically. On the other hand, he was graded poorly in pass coverage and his missed tackle rate. All while stating he was the best rusher on a poor pass-rushing unit overall. And one that used five or more pass rushers at a time, which was the league’s highest among all the defenses in the league last season.
This Author’s IDP Game Film Reviewed
In the process of reviewing game film, at least four games are reviewed based on the player’s most productive contests. And the opponent’s offensive line rankings are added according to the Football Outsiders.
Arizona Cardinals in week two, offensive line ranked 21st in run blocking and 26th in pass blocking.
Kansas City Chiefs in week three, offensive line ranked 28th in run blocking and 4th in pass blocking.
Cincinnati Bengals in week nine, offensive line ranked 26th in run blocking and 21st in pass blocking.
Houston Texans in week ten, offensive line ranked 22nd and 27th in pass blocking.
Noting Players Three Least Productive Contests
Listed in the least productive order the player recorded the least amount of stats for gauging purposes. And their offensive line rankings are added according to the Football Outsiders. These contests are not among the game film reviewed unless noted as such.
New England in week eight recorded four QB hits with 76% of the available snap counts. The Patriots offensive line ranked 9th at run blocking and 5th in pass blocking
Seattle in week seven recorded 1 assisted tackle and 1 QB hit with 80% of the available snap counts. The Seahawks offensive line ranked 15th at run blocking and 24th in pass blocking.
New York Jets in week fourteen recorded 2 solos, 1 assisted tackle and 1 QB hit with 85% of the available snap counts. The Jets offensive line ranked 31st at run blocking and 30th in pass blocking.
IDP Free Agency Scenario Gauged
As A Resigned Raven In 2020 +
Taking everything into account, this writer believes that that Judon needs to resign with the Ravens to remain stable more so than the Ravens need to resign him. And the likelihood is we have seen the area of his ceiling in production this past season as a Raven. His game film was impressive at times, but overall a lot of the production was out of the backfield box or against the least amount of resistance taken.
Fantasy Football owners should consider him in the same realm he ended last season in Gridiron Ratings and as a bye-week or favorable match-up on paper option. And overall, if the Ravens add talent among their defensive line and edge rushers, or the current players improve, it’ll likely eat into Judon’s opportunities to make his ceiling again.
Signed Elsewhere In 2020 +
Again taking everything into account, this writer believes that if Judon signs anywhere else, he’ll descend not having the same prime situation as he had in 2019 with Raven’s amount of schemed blitzing. And the odds are if he starts from scratch and has to depend on his talent and skillset alone, he’ll struggle to come near his 2019 Gridiron Ratings.
Fantasy Football owners will want to consider avoiding Judon as anything more than deep depth and wait out 2020 to see exactly how this works out. And consider relegating him to a flier status with the potential hype that’ll come with where ever he signs to play.
Thank you for joining us at Gridiron Ratings.
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