Welcome to the IDP free agency gauge, where we’ll use an assortment of available information to gauge a player’s potential fantasy football outlook. And signed or unsigned, we’ll accumulate what we’ve learned in the process to gauge how to proceed from an IDP point of view with each player. So sit back and enjoy as the NFL ramps up their free agency period, and we break down those scenarios along the way.
Designated IDP Positions: WLB/OLB/ILB
H/W: 6-4 – 235lb – Age: 26
2019 Team / Scheme: Falcons / 4-3
Experience: 4 years
Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
2019 Gridiron Ratings
idp free agency
Note: PFR’s advanced metrics are only available from 2018 onward.
Gauging IDP Free Agency Scenarios
Applying The Information
As an IDP writer, diving into Campell’s overall body of work has been a struggle. And I had a hard time finding positives to pass along to readers. Sure, there are some good individual game reports, but those are just as inconstant as Campbell’s overall career performance. But unfortunately, when it came to Campbell, I had a preconceived notion of the situation. And countering that with any debatable information opposing what I already knew just didn’t play out well at all. Ever been told if you don’t have anything nice to say, just don’t say it? Well, after reviewing the 2019 game film, that quote came to mind.
Campell, as an IDP player for fantasy football, has done well for his IDP owners. And his 2019 season indeed provided them with LB1 type scoring. But it is a whole other story when rewatching his film from a real-life perspective. He is undisciplined, an average overall athlete, and has mental lapses that surface a lot and at the wrong time. And after four seasons in the NFL, those aren’t positives to hold out hope on.
Campbell’s IDP owners a false sense of security?
The 2019 Gridiron Ratings do reflect Campbell’s productivity and soften the blow when it comes to fantasy football. And yet another “but” here, his PFF grades from his rookie season through 2019 hits harder than anything. As you can see below, he hasn’t grown as a player by finetuning his craft. In four years he’s been a pro player, the PFF grades dropped each season. Indicating the NFL draft experts in 2016 that called him a “reach” by the Falcons in the fourth round, may have been correct. And, ironically, as Campbell’s NFL PFF grades have gone down, his stats for Fantasy Football have gone up.
idp free agency
Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due
2017 PFF Grade/Rank: 76.5 / 28th overall.
2018 PFF Grade/Rank: 57.5 / NA overall.
2018 PFF Grade/Rank: 50.1 / NA overall. With an overall rank of 90th in coverage.
According to PFR Advanced metrics (above), in 2019 Campbell allowed 82% of the passes he was targeted.
According to PFR Advanced metrics (above), in 2019 Campbell blitzed 65 times with a 12% success rate.
The #Falcons are planning to allow starters TE Austin Hooper and De’Vondre Campbell to test free agency, GM Thomas Dimitroff said today. The likelihood is that both players receive large deals in free agency, but Atlanta hasn’t ruled out keeping them for the right price.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 25, 2020
According to Spottrac, the Falcons have approximately $4.5 million in cap space after recently locking up players Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, Matt Ryan, and Julio Jones.
This Author’s IDP Game Film Reviewed
In the process of reviewing game film, at least four games are reviewed based on the player’s most productive contests. And the opponent’s offensive efficiency rankings are added according to the Football Outsiders.
Titans in week four, opponent’s offensive efficiency rank: 6th
Texans in week seven, opponent’s offensive efficiency rank: 17th
Panthers in week eleven, opponent’s offensive efficiency rank: 28th
49ers in week fifteen, opponent’s offensive efficiency rank: 7th
Three Least Productive Contests
Listed in the least productive order are the player’s contests he recorded the least amount of stats for our gauging purposes. And their opponent’s offensive efficiency ranking is added according to the Football Outsiders. These contests are not among the game film reviewed unless noted as such.
Saints in week thirteen recorded one solo, two assisted tackles, one pass defended with 94% of the available snap counts. The Saints offensive efficiency rank: 4th (watched)
Buccaneers in week sixteen recorded two solos, one assisted tackle, one tackle for loss with 90% of the available snap counts. The Buccaneers offensive efficiency rank: 21st (watched)
Colts in week three recorded four solos and one assisted tackle with 76% of the available snap counts. The Colts offensive efficiency rank: 19th
IDP Free Agency Scenario Gauged
As A Resigned Falcon In 2020 +
Taking everything into account, this writer believes that if Campell is resigned by the Falcons, he peaked in production last season. And he only recorded his career-high in combined tackles because the Falcons defense struggled overall. And after reviewing his game film, adding in the lack of playmaking type plays overall, he basically is productive by default as a descending LB2.
Campbell just hasn’t developed good instincts to read and react or fixed his mental lapses. And with the Falcons barely having any cap and telling him to test the market, it is likely just a nice way to say he is replaceable. And he’ll have to be dirt cheap to resign if they are going to actually consider it.
They also have a strong candidate to replace his presence on the field in some capacity with Foye Oluokun, who graded (62.7) considerably higher last season. So between Oluokun, the draft, and cheaper veterans on the market, Campbell’s odds aren’t good at all that the Falcons would match an offer. Instead, the Falcons would likely want to make cap room to retain UFA TE Austin Hooper (78.3), who did develop over time into a key offensive player.
Signed Elsewhere In 2020 +
Again taking everything into account, this writer believes that if Campbell signs elsewhere, the odds are he’ll be a descending LB2. And if this writer can see it in the game film, surely any NFL coaching staff can.
Not to mention or spread the rumors, but this writer came across a few whispers that Campbell is a major contributor to a poor locker room vibe concerning his work ethic. And that doesn’t help his case to land a major role anywhere, on top of everything we’ve gone over. But don’t quote me here that he won’t land a decent gig somewhere. Because some organizations won’t care and will need a veteran like Campbell, for whatever reason. And we’ll have to consider it could be in a niche type role that would focus on his limited skill set when he does land somewhere.
Fantasy Football owners will want to look hard at the situation of where he lands this offseason. But in general, the odds are that an LB2 scenario is our best case going forward. And that there is a real risk that he won’t have the high combined tackle production again unless everything goes perfectly. If I owned him in any leagues, he is on my trade bait block, and I’m looking for an owner focused on his 121 combined tackles last season. And the odds are good I can find a replacement, just like the Falcons likely will with no problem.
idp free agency
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