Fantasy Football’s Rookie IDP Tracker

Welcome to The IDP Tipster’s NFL Fantasy Football Rookie IDP Redraft Tracker. Where we’ve recorded the success of first-year defensive players since 2013. And it’s not always what novice managers want to hear but nonetheless can’t be ignored. And over the course of my IDP writing career. I’ve always informed IDP owners about the risk of depending on a rookie in redraft lineups. And it set expectations to a reasonable level. Helping set a clearer approach when trying to win on the defensive side of the ball.

We’ve also expressed the idea that rookie fantasy football players should be more of a luxury. Granted we have had overachievers as tier one rookies do exist, but let’s face it. No matter how much we love the rookie hype in the offseason and we want to own the next big thing in our redraft leagues. They actually let us down more often than some owners would like to admit. So let’s let the numbers do our talking for us. And make an informed decision based on facts. And not the hype that companies every high-profile fantasy football rookie IDP.

Fantasy Football Rookie IDP Tracker Process

The following rookie defensive players ranked in the top 64 in combined tackles since 2013. And these IDPs in this top realm likely helped anchor a lot of the winning starting lineups those years. Anything out of that top 64 by the end of the first year. And it likely meant the rookie was not consistent enough to trust as an every-week play. Or perhaps, he didn’t get the starting gig as he was projected to in his hype. Either way, the facts count as they land and reflect just how reliable a rookie IDP class actually is.

We’ll also note the tiers for those IDP owners looking to refine this information even deeper.

One (T1), ended the season ranked in the top 16 tier of the NFL in combined tackles.

Two (T2), ended the season ranked in the top 17 to 32 tier of the NFL in combined tackles.

Three (T3), ended the season ranked in the top 33 to 48 tier of the NFL in combined tackles.

Four (T4), ended the season ranked in the top 49 to 64 tier of the NFL in combined tackles.

Why by combined tackles?

In 99% of redraft leagues that this writer knows of the combined tackles are the main constant to track. The reason is simple. All other “extra” playmaking stats like sacks and interceptions. They’re nearly impossible to consistently duplicate year and year out. Hence. It always means the base tackles reflect who performed the best in scoring when setting the bar. Granted, there are a few exceptions in some formats that’ll exaggerate those stats. So this may not exactly account for the final scoring in your leagues. So just keep this in mind as we are approaching this by the core numbers and not on any particular scoring format.

The NFL’s Fantasy Football IDP Rookie Hit Rate Percentage For The Last  Nine Seasons

Total Defensive Players Drafted: 1,020

Grand Total NFL Rookies Reaching Tier One To Four (top 64) In Combined Tackles: 40

The Grand Total Rookie IDP Hit Rate For 2013 to through 2020 Success…

3.55%

Down from 3.92% from 2021

IDP Facts We Can Read Into

First off, Talents like Darius Leonards and Micah Parsons are rarest of all. And 2018 was an exceptional season with 9, and without it. The average falls to 3.12% of NFL rookie players helping to secure our lineups per season over the last eight years. And in a standard twelve-team league and taking all the top 64 players that come into play. The lineups would hold about 4 starting designated IDPs. For a grand total out of 60 of at least 352+ starting NFL players per season. And we know we have at least three designated positions to use in our lineups. So these are the numbers of the successful positions as of now. At least in terms of combined tackles which again is 99% of the time our base stat for IDP scoring.

Inside Linebacker – 28

Strong Safety – 11

Outside Linebacker – 1

Free Safety – 1

Cornerback – 1

*Players are marked below at the designated position they played in the NFL in their rookie season.

The Tier Count

In the process of making the top 64, this is the count of the tiers they reached. And it is a fine hair between those tiers next to each other. But in a standard-sized league, a tier that’s at least one tier away can make a difference in the league’s IDP value. And if you ask this writer and Elite Tier One. No matter the round the player is hyped over. It’s simply like winning the lottery their rookie season if they make the 64-player cutoff. Remember the number of total players drafted in the last 9 years? It’s now 1,150. And those tiered amounts per season below are over the last 9 years. In all, nine years into that grand total is a hit rate less than 1% their rookie season.

One (T1) – 9

Two (T2) – 13

Three (T3) – 10

Four (T4) – 10

Accomplished Fantasy Football IDP Rookie Plays

2021 – (T1) LB/Edge Rusher Micah Parsons – (T2) ILB Nick Bolton

2020 – (T2) ILB Jeremy Chinn * – (T3) ILB Kenneth Murray – (T3) ILB Patrick Queen – (T4) SS Antione Winfield – (T4) SS Kameron Curl *

2019 – (T2) ILB Devin Bush – (T3) ILB Cole Holcomb – (T3) SS Taylor Rapp *  – (T3) ILB Dre Greenlaw * – (T4) ILB Devin White – (T4) ILB Mack Wilson*

2018 – (T1) ILB Darius Leonard – (T1) ILB Leighton Vander Esch ranked – (T1) ILB Fred Warner – (T1) ILB Tremaine Edmunds – (T1) ILB Roquan Smith – (T2) FS Jessie Bates – (T2) SS Derwin James – (T4) ILB Foyesade Oluokun – (T4) SS Justin Reid

2017 – (T2) ILB Jarrard Davis – (T2) OLB Zach Cunningham – (T4) SS Jamal Adams

2016 – (T2) ILB Deion Jones – (T2) SS Keanu Neal – (T4) CB Daryl Worley – (T4) SS Vonn Bell

2015 – (T2) ILB Stephone Anthony – (T2) SS Landon Collins – (T3) ILB Kwon Alexander – (T3) ILB Eric Kendricks

2014 – (T1) ILB C.J. Mosley – (T2) ILB Preston Brown – (T2) ILB Chris Borland – (T3) ILB Telvin Smith – (T4) SS Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix

2013 – (T1) ILB Paul Worrilow *  – (T1) ILB Kiko Alonso – (T2) ILB Alex Ogletree – (T3) SS Johnathon Cyprien

2021 Notes*

This writer reflected back on the 2021 season and its rookie hype and projections. And by our count. There were at least 10 2021 fantasy football IDP rookie players hyped up by many as projected major 2021 contributors. Besides M. Parsons and N. Bolton. Do some of these names come to mind?

Kwity Paye
Jaelan Phillips
Andre Cisco
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Jamin Davis
Zaven Collins
Trevon Moehring
Richie Grant
Pete Werner

Granted some flashed and were serviceable from time to time. But overall, they all fell short of making an impact in 2021.

Historical Notes

No Notes for a particular season? It just means something didn’t stand out.

2020 * – Jeremy Chinn was a defensive back in college and listed as such on most fantasy football sites. But he played inside linebacker for the entire season so we have listed him as such. We did this for that obvious reason and to support some of our other designated position information we’ve added. And not to take anything away from what seventh-round Kameron Curl accomplished, but if veteran Landon Collins hadn’t gone down early in the season, we likely wouldn’t know his name right now. Not to mention a 2020 hit rate of 3.2% and not 4.0%.

2019 * – Three of the six in this class only became starters and received a large amount of playing time due to veteran year-ending injuries early on in the season. The Rams John Johnson was replaced by Taylor Rapp, 49ers Kwon Alexander was replaced by Dre Greenlaw, and the Browns Christain Kirksey was replaced by Mack Wilson. And noting this the Hit Rate Percentage could be seen as a 2.3 and not a 4.6. Which would have knocked the eight-year total down to…….

2013 * – Paul Worrilow is the only undrafted rookie we know of to make an impact as he did in his rookie season in this time frame.

Thanks for joining me again this year and I’ll see you again in 2022 for The next NFL Fantasy Football Rookie IDP Hit Rate Tracker update.

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2019 IDP’s Drafted:  47 DL – 31 LB – 51 DB (139 Total)

Tiers

One: N/A

Two: MLB Devin Bush ranked 30th (tied)

Three: W/MLB Cole Holcomb ranked 38th (tied) – FS/SS Taylor Rapp ranked 43rd – W/MLB Dre Greenlaw ranked 48th

Four: M/WLB Devin White ranked 49th – WLB Mack Wilson ranked 59th

Special note about the 2019 class.

It is to the best of our knowledge that three of the six in this class only became starters due to veteran season-ending injuries.

John Johnson > Taylor Rapp

Kwon Alexander > Dre Greenlaw

Christain Kirksey > Mack Wilson