IDP Dime Drop: Strong Undervalued Waiver Wire Plays WK 11
IDP Dime Drop
IDP Dime Drop (s) are intended first and foremost for The IDP Tipster.com members first. But will eventually be published or released to the general fantasy football community. Readers should note that our members have received this information to gain the IDP edge at least one waiver wire period before it is released. If you would like to be ahead of the IDP game before your league members please visit our home page and become a valued member . And see exactly what you are missing IDP Tactical Tools wise as well as these types of league winning tips.
IDP Dime Drop Players To Target Week 11
It is not our normal way of doing things by writing about potential waiver wire pick-ups each week. But at the moment there are some IDP plays standing out that just need to be considered in week eleven. So we are going to take the time and give a short summary on a couple of players to look into and why we should.
The players maybe under the radar or just players we know and are likely sitting on the waiver wires. With a couple in mind we’ll research as we go and see where we land as we try and get the right players in at the right time. With four teams on by it has taken some known IDP plays out of our pool, so every little bit can help. And knowing as soon as we can is an advantage. Again, there isn’t always time to get this type of article out with all the other tactical tools we offer needing to be done. But lucky for us, today we have that time.
Klein is not a flashy player. And he has been around and an option for IDP owners for some time. As a Saint the last couple of years he has had his ups and downs as a productive player. But in 2019 he has taken a half step in relevancy. The Saints are using him at a higher rate as well in a way on the field that’s opened the door for us. Is he an every week play? No. But he has managed to get the job done when the match-ups are right. And in week 11, just like this past week versus the falcons, the match-up is right to consider him as a strong play.
Before we go on please keep in mind that via the formula used in the Easy Start/Sit charts what exactly is meant by a strong, solid, or weak play. It’s actually simple as long as we keep it in mind. It boils down to match-up versus the players normal potential. If the player averages a certain amount of production via the match-ups at hand, that is what we should expect.
With that being said let’s have a look at what Klein has managed to do so far this year with whatever match-up he has had. We’ll do this via our way as always and use the formula used for the Easy Start/Sit charts. Noting, this is not only the formula used for the charts, but the is also the way that we hit on player like Tracy Walker, Xavier Woods, and Chuck Clark. It isn’t full proof, but what in fantasy football is? But the hit rate is strong and is a very reliable tool that’s been proven.
Now back to Klein…
Reading The IDP Dime Drop Production
In nine contests he has had…
Four weak contest, Texans, Cowboys, Rams, and Bears.
One “barely” solid contest with the Cardinals.
Two solid with Jaguars and Seahawks.
And two strong with Falcons and Buccaneers.
Match-up average is about 50/50 overall so far.
He is averaging 5.2 combined tackles overall. 84% (full time)
In the 4 contest that were solid/strong he averaged 6 combined tackles.
And in the 5 contest that were weak and barley solid he averaged 4.8 combined tackles.
And adding 5 total play making type plays like forced fumbles and tackle for losses.
Average snap count on the year per contest: 84% (Full time by today’s NFL average.)
His match-up with the Bucs in week 5 he went 4 solo, 2 asst. and a tackle for a loss.
Likely Week 11 IDP Conclusion
Note: The contest he played versus the Bears that he only got 50% (breaking his average), even their number one ILB Demario Davis only played 68% of the snaps. His lowest amount on the season. The game reports were that the Saints dominated the contest. So the Saints started resting their starters.
So in conclusion heading into week eleven and the Bucs allowing top five points to the ILBs. Klein is set up to hit his same production as he did the first time these two teams meet in week 5. And being a divisional contest there is “upside” as well. It is possible he has his best game of the season. making him as solid to strong as any play at ILB in week 11.
Judon was trusted into a bigger role this season after the Ravens let long time stud edge rusher Terrell Suggs walk. he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, but he has been solid and got it done overall when the match-ups are right. And even produced beyond expected a couple of times. Again, not a real shiny player by name, but heading into week 11 we need to consider his match-up.
After reading about Klein above, we’re going to note we will be taking a little bit different approach to plugging Judon. As an edge rusher we should, and will.
Reading The IDP Dime Drop Production
In nine contests he has had…
Contest he produced as formula indicated he would.
4 – Bengals twice (Solid), Dolphins (Solid). and the Patriots (Weak).
Contest that he didn’t produce as formula indicated he would.
1 – Seahawks (Strong)
Contests that he out-performed what the formula indicated he would.
4 – Cardinals (Weak), Chiefs (Weak), Browns (Weak), Steelers (Weak).
Average Snap Count Per Game: 81% (Full Time)
Houston Offensive Line have allowed…
25 sacks (Tied 11th), and 52 QB hits (
Likely Week 11 IDP Conclusion
As we mentioned we are approaching this differently. When it comes to defensive ends and edge rushers we got to look at sacks and pressures as well as the combined tackles. In most leagues a sack is normally twice the scored points as a tackle. And in deep league’s tackle for losses and QB pressures can pad the scoring for the position. Judon is technically a outside linebacker in the 3-4 defensive scheme. So we are mainly looking at this as an edge rusher in leagues he can be used as such.
The Texans are and have been top five allowing points to the DE/Edge position. And are currently top three. In other words the offensive lineman aren’t stopping anyone. And we’ll add they have also been solid or above average to the rest of the defensive lineman. Which is a boost in the five step formula that we use. Simple enough, they struggle to block when it comes to the run game or the pass. Four reference of what we can expect in week 11 for Judon we will refer to the last three contest before the Texans bye week in week 10.
Texans IDP Edge Rusher Opponents Weeks 7-9
Stats include all designated DE/Edge players stats combined together from each opponent as a whole.
Week 7 Versus The Colts:
3 sacks – 7 combined tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 5 QB hits
Week 8 Versus The Raiders:
3 sacks – 8 combined tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 3 QB hits
Week 9 Versus The Jaguars:
1 sack – 12 combined tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits
That’s 7 sacks – 27 combined tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 12 QB hits total.
So average for last three weeks is 2.3 sacks – 9 combined tackles – 3.3 tackles for loss – 4 QB hits.
Judon is the Ravens main Edge rusher averaging 82% of the snap counts each week. Just by those numbers and knowing that Judon is above average from the match ups there is upside. There isn’t any reason to think he can’t get in the backfield and collect some tackles.
1.5 sacks, 5 combined, 2 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits sound reasonable?
Not so sure that is designated LB start-able unless your looking deeper there. But as a edge play and add in his upside, he might see his best game of the season this contest.
Have you had time to check out Jenkins’ numbers lately?
A few weeks back there where a couple things happen with the Eagles defense that we can see gave Jenkins a little boost in production. Not outstanding, but noticeable. LB Zach Brown was cut, Bradham got hurt, the third safety (who was getting a nice portion of snaps at time) Sendejo was cut. And KGH and Gerry became the starting ILBs. And there are so many reports about the lack of good ILB play. KGH isn’t in the right place at the right time, and Gerry has just as many missed tackles as he does tackles each contest.
Guess who plays right beside the ILBs as a “sorta” in the box safety. Sure, week 10 was a down week. But it happens. And I can tell you from weeks five to eight, he did get what the match-up’s on paper via the formula said we would. And here is what he is facing in week eleven.
Patriots: Ranked 8th in points allowed to the safety. Not to mention that they are also 11th in points allowed to the LBs. And just how much does Tom Brady like to hit the mid field passes with Edleman?
The four prior games that the Patriots played versus the Ravens, Browns, Giants, and Jets, the Patriots gave up …
SS Chuck Clark 5 combined
SS Morgan Burnett 8 combined
SS Jamal Adams 6 combined
SS Jabrill Peppers 10 combined
There is no reason that we can’t think 7 or 8 tackles for Jenkins is out of the question. Plus whatever else he might get extra. Throwing in the Eagles ILB issues on top of it for more upside. Even if Bradham would return to take over a ILB spot Jenkins odds are high. And Bradham has missed the last couple of contest. So likely not 100% if he is out there as well.
Guessing, 7 tackles, 2 PD, and a tackle for a loss is possible.