The 4th of July is now behind us and fantasy draft prep season is underway. Which means that mock drafts are being posted here, there, and everywhere that has anything to do with the NFL. This is the second ADP review of the season and many players are moving up and down based on nothing more than whispers in the wind. However, during the month of July, it’s important to refrain from getting psychologically married to a player based on something a beat writer said. It’s important to remember that there are few negative stories this time of the year and most player related “news” should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, let’s look at some 5th round ADP’s.
For the sake of being transparent, the scoring format I’m using is based on basic PPR scoring with 4pt passing TDs in a redraft style league. All ADP information is available on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. So, without further adieu, the 5th round….
The ADP on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com, reflects the 5th round as follows:
5.01 Deshaun Watson-
Watson was on last week’s list too at 4.11. While his ADP is starting to come back down to earth a bit, this is still a little high for me. However, if he shifts down to a late 5th or early 6th, I’d be all in. Coming off of an ACL injury that ended his 2017 campaign early, Watson is incredibly dynamic and the 5.01 is a better spot for DW4 than some other mocks I’ve seen. He’s been going as early as the 3rd round which is ludicrous for a guy who hasn’t played a full season.
5.02 Mark Ingram-
The 5th round is still a point where you’re drafting starters. Ingram will miss the first 4 games due to suspension and thus he’s dead weight for those weeks. It’s hard to sign off on Ingram here, I’d only do it if one or both of the RBs I’ve drafted may not make it through the season (e.g. LeSean McCoy).
5.03 Ronald Jones Jr-
RoJo is the most talented back on this team and barring an awful pre-season he should be in line for the lion’s share of the carries.
5.04 Royce Freeman-
Like RoJo, the Rolls Royce should be in line for the bulk of the Broncos carries. They have about 250 of them up for grabs and the combination of both Booker and Henderson have done little to stake a reasonable claim to them. If I need an RB in RD5, I may go with Freeman over the likes of Mark Ingram and Ronald Jones.
5.05 Brandin Cooks-
In 2017, the Rams traded for Sammy Watkins and promptly planted him on the backside of passing patterns leaving his owners feeling mostly empty inside. Cooks is a far more versatile WR and will be more productive than Watkins. Unfortunately, the downside is that he still won’t be worth this draft slot.
5.06 Jimmy Graham-
After Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz the TE position is a total wasteland. I wouldn’t waste this pick on a TE at this spot let alone an aging TD dependent one. Also, Aaron Rodgers is not known for targeting his TEs which could be more bad news for Graham.
5.07 Lamar Miller-
I believe Miller is this high by default. Second-year RB D’Onta Foreman is questionable for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn Achilles Tendon. He should see the needed volume to be a fantasy starter for at least the first half of the season. Once Foreman is good to go, all bets are off. I might be willing to go Dion Lewis here instead. Speaking of….
5.08 Dion Lewis-
This could be a really nice value pick here. We know that the Titans will have a split backfield but Dion is in position to see a share early-down work and most, if not all, of the receiving work. In a PPR I would love him as an RB3/Flex player.
5.09 Marvin Jones-
Despite my unhealthy affection for Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones is the WR to target in the 5th rd. The new look Lions will still throw the ball all over the yard giving Jones and Golden Tate inherent value.
5.10 Jarvis Landry-
Landry, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated players in the league and the Browns are not paying him $14M/Yr to not funnel passes his way. Don’t expect his usual volume but he could easily be in the 85-90 catch category which is tremendous value for a 5th round WR.
5.11 Chris Hogan-
Hogan is the 3rd to 4th option in this offense. The 5th/6th round is entirely too early. At the end of the 5th, I would rather have Titans WR Corey Davis. Davis will at least be the #1 option for his team, he’s more athletically gifted and he’s not going into his age 30 season.
5.12 Greg Olsen-
There is no denying that Olsen has been one Cam Newton’s favorite targets during his time in Carolina. Unfortunately, it’s time to let someone else draft Olsen here. I’m not saying avoid him, as I’d sign him up in Rd 7 but the 5th is too soon. You can grab George Kittle and/or Delanie Walker much later and get similar production in 2018.
Last week I said the 4th round is where drafters start to make their money, construct their roster, and consider bye weeks as the starting line up fills out. This is even truer in rounds five, six, and seven. You’re still trying to get players that will be starters for the majority of the season and if the draft breaks your way those guys will all be useful parts of your team in 2018.
Ideally, by round 5 you’re getting a good feel for how the owners are constructing their rosters and you can start to assess what players might be available later in the draft. Your roster likely has some balance which allows you to take the best player on the board in round 5. For my money, I really like Jarvis Landry, Royce Freeman, and Ronald Jones. If those guys are gone then Dion Lewis and Marvin Jones. Remember, if you don’t love a RB or WR here, don’t force it, especially if you have a QB or TE you do love. Don’t be afraid to reach a round or two early for a guy if he gives you a positional advantage.
The 5th round is the earliest I would consider a QB and I would need to be looking at an elite or a near elite guy like Aaron Rodgers (likely gone), Carson Wentz, or maybe (big maybe) Deshaun Watson. Some name brands like Brady and Brees may be over drafted here- avoid drafting based on what they’ve done in the past but rather what they’re likely to do moving forward.
As always, I hope this helps you build your draft plan and keeps you from being caught off guard when you’re on the clock. Next week, we’ll cover the 6th round. Until then, happy drafting!