Odell Beckham: Trade Scenarios

Odell Beckham: Trade Scenarios
April 6, 2018 No Comments ADP, Fantasy Draft, Stuff, Uncategorized Jeff DiMatteo

As you’ve probably heard, The New York Giants are listening to trade offers for Odell Beckham Jr. Confusing, I know, because he’s allegedly not on the “trade block.” Going into his 5th season, Beckham has already stated that he will not be stepping onto a field for any team without a new contract.  Sounds like a pretty tenuous situation between arguably the most talented wide receiver in football and a Giants franchise looking to bounce back from an abysmal 2017 campaign.

I for one, am not convinced that Beckham gets dealt (all of it sounds like the public banter between a team and a players’ reps). Odell is likely commanding a massive contract probably in the vicinity of 5 yrs/$100m with $60m guaranteed and the Giants are trying to drive that number down as far as possible. Who hasn’t already seen this story played out a thousand times?

$100m may sound crazy for a WR but Mike Evans just got 5yrs/$82.5m with $55m guaranteed. The $55m will be paid over the first two years which will make years 3-5 really interesting. Beckham and Evans would appear (on the surface) to be very similar- elite level receivers, primary targets for their teams, and usually counted on as fantasy football studs for those given the opportunity to draft them. Which means that a contract on Evans’ level seems very realistic but let’s look closer at their production.

Image result for odell beckham jr. pictures

Photo by; Muscle and Fitness

*Stats provided by profootballreference.com

*Since entering the league in 2014

Odell Beckham           Mike Evans

Targets –            498                           579

Receptions-       313                           309

Yards-               4,424                        4,579

Touchdowns-     38                             32

Yards/Gm-         94.1                          75.1

The numbers are pretty close, right? Not so fast… Mike Evans has played in 14 more games which is almost an additional full season than Beckham Jr. For me, the number that is really telling is the yards per game. Odell is making more out of less with fewer targets, better catch rate and more yards per game. His production on a per game basis blows Evans away. A fact that I’m sure isn’t lost on Odell’s agent. Evans contract set the market and Odell is about to reset it.

Image result for mike evans bucs

Photo by; RotoBiz

The news for the Giants gets a little worse because they just ate $20m in dead money by dealing JPP to the Buccaneers (the damn Buccaneers are really giving it to the Giants this offseason). This move has essentially crippled them for the remainder of the off-season. As of 3/28/18 spotrac.com shows the Giants have about $7.6m under the cap which is not nearly enough to get moving on OBJ’s new deal.

There is some good news for the team though, they don’t have to extend Beckham right now…They could do what the Redskins did with Kirk Cousins and slap him with a franchise tag or two. OK, bad example. At least Odell is under contract for 2018 and can be franchise tagged easily for 2019. With that said we can only expect this drama to continue to play out until a contract is signed or a trade is made…Lucky us.

…In the meantime, let’s look at some possible trades. For the record, none of these are based on insider info, offer little factual data and were mostly conjured up from the dark recesses of my mind for your entertainment.

Let’s get started!

Los Angeles Rams –

It’s been reported that #23 is on the table as part of a deal but any offer would have to include a 2nd first round pick and a possible mid rounder.  Not to mention they’ll need to find some money to give him. Easier said than done with Aaron Donald due up for an extension and Todd Gurley right behind him in 2019.  As of 3/28/18 the Rams have $35m in cap room but that doesn’t appear to include Ndamukong Suh’s $14m just inked this week. Having only $21m to work with might hamper their ability to get this done.

Trade:

Rams get:                              Giants get:                                 Beckham contract:

Odell Beckham Jr               2018 #23 overall              5yrs/$90m with $60m guaranteed

2019 1st rd pick

2019 2nd rd pick

This seems really unlikely given Donald, Gurley, and Goff will all need to be extended over the next three years.

Fantasy Impact: Odell’s value changes little. He’ll still be force fed the ball and should be considered an elite option at his position. It would hurt Robert Woods the most and potentially open the middle of the field for Cooper Kupp to work underneath.

Cleveland Browns –

Contestant number two, like the Rams, the Browns haven’t been shy about making some trades to make major changes to their team. Unlike the Rams ,the Browns have plenty of draft capital and money to make the deal and pay him after it’s been consummated. This one is a bit muddier though due to the Browns adding Jarvis Landry, and already having Josh Gordon and David Njoku. If I’m running the Browns I would at least kick the tires, knowing full well the Giants will attempt to get a major haul in return the deal below may be something both side could agree to.

Trade:

Browns get:                        Giants get:                                   Beckham contract:

Odell Beckham Jr             2018 #1 Overall                 5yrs/100m with $65m guaranteed

2018 #2                            2018 #4 Overall

2019 3rd rd pick

The reason I’d like this one for the Giants is the idea of flipping the power in the draft from Cleveland to New York. The Giants can then draft any combination of Barkley, Chubb, and/or a QB. Heck, they could even trade down with Buffalo and add even more picks. Trade #4 to Buffalo for #12 and #22? The Giants could, in theory, turn Beckham into three 1st’s and a 3rd and that’s a good haul by any measure.

Fantasy Impact: I would expect Beckham, Landry, and Gordon to have fewer catches but all three would break 1,000 yards and the Browns would be exceptionally difficult to cover in any defensive scheme.

San Francisco 49ers–

Another team that has the money and draft capital to make a major move. All of these trades should be considered long shots at best but this one seems especially far off. Theoretically, though, the Niners could offer a package like this.

Trade:

49ers get:                          Giants get                                  Beckham contract:

Odell Beckham Jr           2018 #9 Overall                  5yrs/$95m with $60m guaranteed

2018 #70 Overall

2019 2nd rd pick

This move would give Jimmy G a legitimate #1 WR to throw to for the foreseeable future. However, with all of the holes the Niners have it seems unlikely that they’d be willing to move more than #7.

Fantasy Impact: Having Beckham here would actually help everyone in the 49ers offense except for Marquise Goodwin. The draft will tell more of the story but assume OBJ is a WR1, George Kittle if healthy is a high end TE2/Streamer is smaller formats, McKinnon will see soft fronts opening him up for a bigger year than Hyde had in 2017.

The moral of the story here is this; while an OBJ trade is fun to talk about it’s likely NOT happening. All due respect to Antonio Brown as the best WR in the league, but OBJ is the most talented and will hold the best WR mantle all to himself sooner than later. If you’re playing in a dynasty/keeper league don’t sell low. OBJ should be held and only given up for a king’s ransom.

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